JOE
St Joe Company
NYSE: JOE · REAL ESTATE · REAL ESTATE - DIVERSIFIED
$65.10
-0.28% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$3.73B
P/E ratio
33.64
P/S ratio
7.19x
EPS (TTM)
$1.93
Dividend yield
0.92%
52W range
$45 – $73
Volume
0.2M
St Joe Company (JOE) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed JOE price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$65.10
Today
Analyst consensus
$19.00
-70.81% · 12M
2030 Base
$67.47
+3.64% future
NPV today
$40.51
@ 12% WACC
1 analysts:
1 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Jorge Gonzalez emphasized at the 2026 Annual Meeting a strategic focus on expanding recurring income (hospitality and leasing now 60% of revenue), scaling residential communities through partnerships (major PulteGroup homesites contract announced), and efficient capital allocation. No specific revenue targets were disclosed, but management indicated confidence in 'structured land pipeline' and 'long-term repeatable revenue streams' from Florida holdings. Q1 2026 revenue of $99.1M (5% YoY growth) was highlighted as the highest first quarter since 2014 (excluding the 2014 $701.87M timberland sale year).
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
JOE · St Joe Company · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$25.66
NPV today: $15.41
Base case (2030)
$67.47
NPV today: $40.51
Bull case (2030)
$130.18
NPV today: $78.17
WallStSmart.com
JOE financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | $0.7B | $0.8B | $0.9B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| Revenue growth | 27.5% | 10.1% | 21.2% | 19.7% | 15.0% | 11.4% |
| Net margin | — | 19.0% | 21.2% | 22.8% | 22.7% | 22.2% |
| EPS | $2.00 | $2.15 | $2.95 | $3.65 | $4.15 | $4.65 |
| Diluted shares | — | 57M | 57M | 57M | 57M | 57M |
| Net debt | — | $629.34M | $689.24M | $758.14M | $836.76M | $926.62M |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $34.33 | $43.73 | $50.89 | $58.58 | $67.47 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 57M | 57M | 57M |
| Net debt | $926.62M | $926.62M | $926.62M |
| Implied P/E † | 6x | 15x | 28x |
| 2030 Price | $25.66 | $67.47 | $130.18 |
| NPV @ 12% | $15.41 | $40.51 | $78.17 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because JOE is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $67.47 base case
JOE catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Watersound Town Center expansion: Publix Super Market, Topgolf, additional retail tenants driving recurring leasing revenue
+ PulteGroup partnership for residential homesites: multi-year homesite supply contract reducing timing risk and providing revenue visibility
+ Hospitality portfolio maturation: Camp Creek Inn 4-star Forbes recognition, Homewood Suites Panama City Beach, Hotel Indigo Panama City Marina filling rooms and achieving scale
+ Commercial real estate development: expanding leasable space at Watersound West Bay Center with national tenants (Johnnie-O, etc.)
+ Share buyback authorization increase: $200M total capacity signals management confidence in undervaluation
Key risks
- High leverage: Debt/Equity of 0.50 and LT Debt/Eq of 0.49 limits financial flexibility; hospitality sector exposed to recession/travel demand collapse
- Execution risk on recurring revenue pivot: company has historically relied on land sales; scaling hospitality and leasing to replace one-off transactions is unproven at scale
- Florida real estate concentration: geographic concentration in Florida; exposure to hurricane, insurance cost escalation, and regional economic slowdown
- Competition in hospitality/retail: new developments compete with established operators; tenant occupancy and pricing power uncertain
- Valuation compression risk: P/E of 33.7x is elevated; growth must sustain 30%+ to justify multiple; any deceleration triggers multiple contraction
Methodology · St Joe Company 2030 stock forecast model
St Joe Company 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 1 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for JOE by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($926.62M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 12% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.306) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
JOE price target FAQ
What is the JOE price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's St Joe Company 2030 base case is $67.47 per share, with a bull case of $130.18 and bear case of $25.66. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 12% WACC is $40.51.
How is the St Joe Company 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The JOE 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the JOE price target account for dilution?
St Joe Company is projected to grow diluted share count from 57M to 57M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on JOE stock?
1 analysts cover JOE with an average 12-month price target of $—. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.