Geo Group Inc
NYSE: GEO · INDUSTRIALS · SECURITY & PROTECTION SERVICES
Updated 2026-06-05
Geo Group Inc (GEO) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for GEO.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
GEO historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in GEO's own 5Y range.
GEO intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
GEO valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 14.44x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 1.40x
Is GEO overvalued in 2026?
Geo Group Inc (GEO) currently trades at $21.41 per share with a market capitalization of $3,800,104,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 69/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 14.4x, above its 5-year median of 11.1x. The PEG ratio of 1.88 points to a price that reasonably reflects expected earnings growth.
Looking at its own history, GEO is currently trading more expensive than 66% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 66th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates GEO's intrinsic value at $47.81 per share, against the current market price of $21.41. This implies a margin of safety of +66.89%. A meaningful cushion exists against model error, making this a reasonable risk-adjusted entry.
The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: GEO trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 69/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is GEO overvalued?
GEO scores 69/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade B), a mixed overall profile. The DCF also shows a positive margin of safety, so price and fundamentals line up reasonably well.
What is GEO's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates GEO's intrinsic value at $47.81 per share, versus the current price of $21.41, a margin of safety of +66.89%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price below it means the market is pricing the stock below that conservative estimate.
What P/E ratio does GEO trade at?
GEO trades at a P/E of 14.4x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 11.1x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting above its own median means the stock is pricier than usual relative to its earnings.
Is GEO a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for GEO is Buy, from a Smart Value Score of 69/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile is balanced and best suited to investors who already have a thesis. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does GEO's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, GEO sits in the 66th percentile of its own 5Y range, above its long-run median relative to where it has traded. A high percentile means today's multiple is near the top of its historical band.
What is GEO's Smart Value Score?
GEO's Smart Value Score is 69/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.