FICO
Fair Isaac Corporation
NYSE: FICO · TECHNOLOGY · SOFTWARE - APPLICATION
$1,092.00
-2.52% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$27.35B
P/E ratio
37.46
P/S ratio
12.12x
EPS (TTM)
$31.48
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$870 – $1,998
Volume
0.4M
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed FICO price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$1,092.00
Today
Analyst consensus
$1,553.00
+42.22% · 12M
2030 Base
$1,191.72
+9.13% future
NPV today
$727.50
@ 11% WACC
26 analysts:
17 Buy7 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Fair Isaac raised FY2026 guidance to $2.60B revenue (30.65% YoY growth) following strong Q2 results. Management has not provided explicit revenue targets beyond FY2026, but emphasized pricing power in Scores segment and accelerating FICO Platform adoption across financial services and fintech. The company is guiding to continued double-digit growth trajectory with software (FICO Platform) becoming an increasingly material revenue contributor.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
FICO · Fair Isaac Corporation · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$596.92
NPV today: $364.40
Base case (2030)
$1,191.72
NPV today: $727.50
Bull case (2030)
$2,381.31
NPV today: $1,453.69
WallStSmart.com
FICO financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.0B | $2.6B | $3.0B | $3.6B | $4.1B | $4.7B |
| Revenue growth | 15.9% | 30.6% | 17.3% | 17.3% | 15.1% | 14.0% |
| Net margin | — | 39.3% | 43.9% | 45.0% | 45.7% | 46.0% |
| EPS | $7.33 | $43.88 | $57.20 | $68.50 | $79.80 | $91.20 |
| Diluted shares | — | 23M | 23M | 24M | 24M | 24M |
| Net debt | — | $2.62B | $2.09B | $1.47B | $762.28M | $-50.38M |
| P/S multiple | — | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x | 6.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $556.87 | $691.89 | $850.67 | $1,014.68 | $1,191.72 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.7B | $4.7B | $4.7B |
| P/S multiple | 3.0x | 6.0x | 12.0x |
| Diluted shares | 24M | 24M | 24M |
| Net debt | $-50.38M | $-50.38M | $-50.38M |
| Implied P/E † | 7x | 13x | 26x |
| 2030 Price | $596.92 | $1,191.72 | $2,381.31 |
| NPV @ 11% | $364.40 | $727.50 | $1,453.69 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because FICO is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $1,191.72 base case
FICO catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ FICO Platform SaaS expansion to financial institutions globally — demonstrated 30x+ loan portfolio scaling at Bradesco, T-Mobile, Erste Group; substantial TAM remaining in banking automation and decisioning software
+ UltraFICO Score 10T adoption momentum — independent study validates superior predictive power vs. VantageScore; positions FICO for market share gains in mortgage and prime lending as lenders shift to more accurate scoring
+ AI-driven analytics and decisioning — integration of Verified Identity Platform (Mitek acquisition) and AI-native tools increasing enterprise software ARR; expanding addressable market in fraud detection, onboarding, and credit decisioning
+ Pricing power sustainability — recent Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac alternative score allowance created brief headwind, but FICO's dominant 80%+ market share and technical superiority sustain premium pricing; demonstrated ability to raise prices on captive Scores licensing base
+ $1.5B share repurchase authorization — signals management confidence in cash generation; historically accretive to EPS trajectory at current growth rates
Key risks
- Regulatory disruption — Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac mortgage score alternative acceptance; potential government mandate for VantageScore or open-source scoring could compress Scores segment margins and market share
- Macro credit cycle sensitivity — recession or credit contraction would suppress lending volumes and FICO Platform adoption velocity; current tight labor market and student loan rebound are tailwinds but cyclical
- FICO Platform software adoption lag — despite strong proof points (Bradesco, T-Mobile), migration from legacy decisioning to FICO Platform depends on fintech and bank capex cycles; integration risk if acquisition synergies (Mitek) underdeliver
- Competitive intensity in decisioning software — specialized vendors in fraud, KYC, lending automation competing for same TAM; Upstart and other AI credit platforms could commoditize lending decisioning
- Valuation reset risk — stock down 30% from 2025 highs; current 22.75x forward P/E implies high expectations for 2027+ growth; any deceleration below 15% growth in 2028+ could trigger multiple compression
Methodology · Fair Isaac Corporation 2030 stock forecast model
Fair Isaac Corporation 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 26 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for FICO by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-50.38M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.23) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 3.0x / base 6.0x / bull 12.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
FICO price target FAQ
What is the FICO price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Fair Isaac Corporation 2030 base case is $1,191.72 per share, with a bull case of $2,381.31 and bear case of $596.92. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $727.50.
How is the Fair Isaac Corporation 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The FICO 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the FICO price target account for dilution?
Fair Isaac Corporation is projected to grow diluted share count from 23M to 24M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on FICO stock?
26 analysts cover FICO with an average 12-month price target of $1,553.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.