ELF
ELF Beauty Inc
NYSE: ELF · CONSUMER DEFENSIVE · HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL PRODUCTS
$61.15
+0.77% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$3.63B
P/E ratio
138.98
P/S ratio
13.54x
EPS (TTM)
$0.44
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$49 – $151
Volume
3.2M
ELF Beauty Inc (ELF) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ELF price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$61.15
Today
Analyst consensus
$99.06
+62.00% · 12M
2030 Base
$69.47
+13.61% future
NPV today
$32.90
@ 18% WACC
18 analysts:
11 Buy7 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Tarang Amin has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030. FY2026 guidance implied ~$1.64B revenue (+24.6% YoY). Management emphasized brand-building investments and Rhode acquisition integration, but no specific 2027-2030 revenue roadmap has been disclosed. Most recent guidance (May 2026 earnings) suggests margin pressure from tariffs (~$20M hit) and pricing rollbacks, indicating near-term headwinds despite 22 consecutive quarters of revenue growth.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ELF · ELF Beauty Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$69.47
NPV today: $32.90
Base case (2030)
$69.47
NPV today: $32.90
Bull case (2030)
$123.82
NPV today: $58.64
WallStSmart.com
ELF financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | $2.3B | $2.7B | $3.0B | $3.4B |
| Revenue growth | 24.6% | 20.6% | 16.7% | 13.1% | 12.3% |
| Net margin | — | 12.6% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 12.4% |
| EPS | $3.13 | $4.75 | $5.45 | $6.05 | $6.72 |
| Diluted shares | — | 60M | 61M | 62M | 62M |
| Net debt | — | $-275.99M | $-471.18M | $-692.05M | $-940.07M |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $42.31 | $51.31 | $60.07 | $69.47 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.4B | $3.4B | $3.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 62M | 62M | 62M |
| Net debt | $-940.07M | $-940.07M | $-940.07M |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 10x | 18x |
| 2030 Price | $69.47 | $69.47 | $123.82 |
| NPV @ 18% | $32.90 | $32.90 | $58.64 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ELF is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $69.47 base case
ELF catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Rhode brand expansion into Sephora Europe and international markets driving incremental DTC + wholesale channels
+ Gen Z/Gen Alpha market penetration via TikTok/influencer marketing and brand partnerships (SURVIVOR, NWSL, dancers)
+ Tariff tariff refunds (~$55M) and margin normalization post-2026 as supply chain stabilizes
+ Market share recovery post-weakness: easing of 'spring lineup' demand issues and new product innovation cycles
+ Potential M&A or acquisition of adjacent beauty/wellness brands leveraging platform + distribution
Key risks
- Iran conflict escalation and Middle East geopolitical instability flagged as potential $20M+ revenue/cost headwind
- Consumer spending normalization: Gen Z pullback from discretionary cosmetics amid high gas prices and inflation
- Intensifying competitive saturation in prestige/affordable beauty (L'Oréal, Coty, Estée Lauder price wars)
- Tariff exposure and commodity cost inflation eroding gross margins (currently 65.9%) if pricing power weakens
- SEC/shareholder litigation risk and internal governance questions (fiduciary duty investigations)
- Inventory correction risk: Feb 2024–Feb 2025 period saw allegations of inflated demand claims + $121M insider sales
Methodology · ELF Beauty Inc 2030 stock forecast model
ELF Beauty Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 18 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (5% cumulative for ELF by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-940.07M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 18% WACC (CAPM: beta 2.389) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
ELF price target FAQ
What is the ELF price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's ELF Beauty Inc 2030 base case is $69.47 per share, with a bull case of $123.82 and bear case of $69.47. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 18% WACC is $32.90.
How is the ELF Beauty Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ELF 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ELF price target account for dilution?
ELF Beauty Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 59M to 62M by 2030 (a 5% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 5%.
What is the analyst consensus on ELF stock?
18 analysts cover ELF with an average 12-month price target of $99.06. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.