WallStSmart
DLTR

Dollar Tree Inc

NASDAQ: DLTR · CONSUMER DEFENSIVE · DISCOUNT STORES

$97.11
+1.47% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$18.88B
P/E ratio
16.11
P/S ratio
0.97x
EPS (TTM)
$5.94
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$81 – $142
Volume
3.2M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$97.11
Consensus
$123.94
+27.63%
2030 Target
$1,621.91
+1570.18%
DCF
$169.84
+26.40% MoS
18 analysts:
7 Buy6 Hold8 Sell

Management guidance

Dollar Tree provided FY2026 guidance of $21.06B revenue (8.51% growth) in their March 2026 earnings call. Management is executing an operational overhaul including new distribution centers, multi-price point assortment strategy, and supply chain technology investments. CEO emphasized cautious near-term outlook due to supply chain headwinds and tariff pressures, but positioned the company for long-term profitable growth through store optimization and basket size expansion.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$2,699.49
$26.2B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$1,621.91
$26.2B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$1,077.57
$26.2B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2024202520262027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$16.8B$17.6B$19.4B$22.3B$23.6B$24.9B$26.2B
Revenue growth—4.8%10.4%6.0%5.9%5.4%5.1%
EPS$5.95$3.24$5.77$7.53$8.15$8.72$9.25
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$1,377.52$1,466.39$1,544.15$1,621.91

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Completion of operational overhaul and new distribution center buildout improving inventory management and margins
+ Multi-price point assortment strategy driving higher basket sizes and transaction values
+ Family Dollar divestiture completed, allowing focus on core Dollar Tree banner and elimination of legacy losses
+ Supply chain technology investments enabling better forecasting and cost control
+ Store expansion in higher-income ZIP codes broadening addressable market and customer demographic
Key risks
- Tariff pressures and supply chain disruptions impacting gross margins and inventory costs
- Consumer spending slowdown if economic conditions deteriorate, impacting traffic and comparable store sales
- Rising labor costs and operational expenses offsetting pricing power and margin expansion
- Execution risk on distribution center investments and supply chain technology transformation
- Customer resistance to higher price points as company moves away from $1.25 single-price model

Methodology

Dollar Tree Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 18 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.