Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
NYSE: CMG · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RESTAURANTS
Updated 2026-04-29
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for CMG.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
CMG historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in CMG's own 5Y range.
CMG intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Standard discounted cash flow models produce unreliable output for unprofitable or near-breakeven companies. Revenue-based multiples such as P/S and EV/Sales, combined with the historical valuation position above, give a more reliable read for this stock.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
CMG valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 28.94x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 3.60x
Is CMG overvalued in 2026?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) currently trades at $32.99 per share with a market capitalization of $42,966,938,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 56/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 28.9x, below its 5-year median of 49.0x. The PEG ratio of 1.80 points to a price that reasonably reflects expected earnings growth.
Looking at its own history, CMG is currently trading cheaper than 96% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 4th percentile of its historical range, a level that has historically coincided with attractive entry points.
A standard DCF model does not produce reliable output for CMG under current conditions. For unprofitable or near-breakeven companies, revenue-based multiples such as EV/Sales and historical P/S percentile are more informative than intrinsic value calculations.
The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: CMG trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 56/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is CMG overvalued in 2026?
Based on a Smart Value Score of 56/100, CMG is fairly valued. Price reasonably reflects current fundamentals with limited cushion in either direction.
What is CMG's fair value?
Standard DCF is unreliable for CMG due to its current profitability profile. Revenue-based approaches such as EV/Sales or historical P/S percentile are more informative for this stock.
What P/E ratio does CMG trade at?
CMG trades at a P/E of 28.9x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 49.0x.
Is CMG a buy based on valuation?
WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 56/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile is balanced. Best suited for investors with an existing thesis.
How does CMG's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, CMG currently sits in the 4th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is historically cheap relative to where it has traded over the period.
What is CMG's Smart Value Score?
CMG's Smart Value Score is 56/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.