Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
NYSE: CMG · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RESTAURANTS
Updated 2026-06-05
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for CMG.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
CMG historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in CMG's own 5Y range.
CMG intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Standard discounted cash flow models produce unreliable output for unprofitable or near-breakeven companies. Revenue-based multiples such as P/S and EV/Sales, combined with the historical valuation position above, give a more reliable read for this stock.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
CMG valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 29.57x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 3.41x
Is CMG overvalued in 2026?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) currently trades at $31.92 per share with a market capitalization of $41,342,513,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 54/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 29.6x, below its 5-year median of 43.9x. The PEG ratio of 1.73 points to a price that reasonably reflects expected earnings growth.
Looking at its own history, CMG is currently trading cheaper than 90% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 10th percentile of its historical range, a level that has historically coincided with attractive entry points.
A standard DCF model does not produce reliable output for CMG under current conditions. For unprofitable or near-breakeven companies, revenue-based multiples such as EV/Sales and historical P/S percentile are more informative than intrinsic value calculations.
The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: CMG trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 54/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is CMG overvalued?
CMG scores 54/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade C), a mixed overall profile. A standard DCF is unreliable here given the profitability profile, so valuation leans on revenue-based measures like EV/Sales and the P/S percentile below.
What is CMG's fair value?
A standard DCF is unreliable for CMG given its current profitability profile. Revenue-based approaches like EV/Sales or the historical P/S percentile are more informative for this stock.
What P/E ratio does CMG trade at?
CMG trades at a P/E of 29.6x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 43.9x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting below its own median means the stock is cheaper than usual relative to its earnings.
Is CMG a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for CMG is Hold, from a Smart Value Score of 54/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile is balanced and best suited to investors who already have a thesis. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does CMG's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, CMG sits in the 10th percentile of its own 5Y range, historically cheap relative to where it has traded. A low percentile means today's multiple is near the bottom of its historical band.
What is CMG's Smart Value Score?
CMG's Smart Value Score is 54/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.