WallStSmart
CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

NYSE: CMG · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RESTAURANTS

$32.99
+0.37% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$42.97B
P/E ratio
28.94
P/S ratio
3.60x
EPS (TTM)
$1.14
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$30 – $58
Volume
15.3M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$32.99
Consensus
$47.43
+43.77%
2030 Target
$182.38
+452.83%
DCF
—
—
29 analysts:
12 Buy6 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

No specific CEO revenue targets for 2026-2030 found in available data. Management has guided to 350 new restaurant openings in 2026 with ~60% unit-level returns, and emphasized digital initiatives (group ordering, catering currently <3% of sales with potential to reach double-digits). No explicit revenue dollar targets or CAGR guidance provided.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$301.76
$20.0B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$182.38
$20.0B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$119.38
$20.0B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$9.9B$11.3B$11.9B$13.1B$14.5B$16.1B$18.0B$20.0B
Revenue growth—14.6%5.4%9.6%11.0%11.1%11.2%11.2%
EPS$0.90$1.13$1.16$1.15$1.38$1.63$1.92$2.26
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$119.38$132.64$145.90$162.48$182.38

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ 350 new restaurant openings in 2026 generating ~60% unit returns
+ Digital channel expansion: group ordering & catering (<3% sales today, potential double-digit contribution)
+ Chipotlanes and drive-thru optimization increasing throughput and traffic
+ Loyalty program gamification (Burrito Vault) driving repeat visits and transaction growth
+ Menu innovation (cilantro lime sauce, protein expansion) supporting traffic recovery
+ International expansion potential (CFO discussing global growth while maintaining debt-free model)
Key risks
- Flat comparable sales guidance for FY2026 (0% comp guidance) indicates consumer traffic weakness persisting
- GLP-1 drug adoption reducing fast-casual restaurant traffic and consumer spending
- Macro consumer weakness: gas price spikes and discretionary spending pullback affecting QSR
- Rising labor and food costs pressuring margins despite revenue growth
- High valuation (29.1x P/E, 4.0x EV/Sales) limits upside if growth doesn't materialize
- Competition from CAVA and other fast-casual concepts gaining share

Methodology

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 29 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.