WallStSmart
CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc

NYSE: CF · BASIC MATERIALS · AGRICULTURAL INPUTS

$126.78
+3.65% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$19.48B
P/E ratio
14.13
P/S ratio
2.75x
EPS (TTM)
$8.97
Dividend yield
1.64%
52W range
$75 – $142
Volume
5.2M

CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Stock Valuation Analysis

Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for CF.

WallStSmart Verdict
Attractively
Valued

Fundamentals support the current valuation. Strong combination of growth, quality, and price.

Smart Value Score: 76 / 100
P/E (TTM)
14.1x
vs 5Y median of 12.9x
PEG
4.05
Elevated vs growth
Margin of Safety
+57.50%
Fair value $228.09 vs $126.78
EV / EBITDA
6.2x

CF historical valuation range

Where current P/E sits in CF's own 5Y range.

NOW
4.8x
5Y Low
8.4x
25th
12.9x
Median
13.6x
75th
40.5x
5Y High
CF is trading more expensive than 88% of the last 5Y.
88th percentile · Historically expensive

CF intrinsic value (DCF)

DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.

Current price
$126.78
Market value
Intrinsic value
$228.09
DCF estimate
Margin of safety
+57.50%
+79.9% upside to fair value

Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.

CF valuation signals

Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.

PEG above 2.0
PEG of 4.05 suggests price is running ahead of growth rate. Caution warranted.
P/E near 5Y high
Current P/E sits in the 88th percentile of its 5Y range. Historically expensive relative to its own history.
Strong margin of safety
Current price 57.5% below DCF intrinsic value estimate. Meaningful downside cushion.

P/E Ratio — History

Current: 14.13x

P/S Ratio — History

Current: 2.75x

Is CF overvalued in 2026?

CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) currently trades at $126.78 per share with a market capitalization of $19,475,491,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock looks attractively valued with a Smart Value Score of 76/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.

The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 14.1x, above its 5-year median of 12.9x. The PEG ratio of 4.05 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.

Looking at its own history, CF is currently trading more expensive than 88% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 88th percentile of its historical range, a zone where forward returns have typically been muted.

Our discounted cash flow model estimates CF's intrinsic value at $228.09 per share, against the current market price of $126.78. This implies a margin of safety of +57.50%. A meaningful cushion exists against model error, making this a reasonable risk-adjusted entry.

The Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.

Bottom line: CF looks attractively valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 76/100. The combination of reasonable price, healthy growth, and quality fundamentals makes it worth serious consideration.

Frequently asked questions

Is CF overvalued in 2026?

Based on a Smart Value Score of 76/100, CF is not overvalued. Fundamentals support the current price and offer reasonable margin of safety.

What is CF's fair value?

Our DCF model estimates CF's intrinsic value at $228.09 per share, versus the current price of $126.78. This produces a margin of safety of +57.50%.

What P/E ratio does CF trade at?

CF trades at a P/E of 14.1x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 12.9x.

Is CF a buy based on valuation?

WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 76/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile skews favorable for long-term accumulation.

How does CF's valuation compare to its history?

On P/E, CF currently sits in the 88th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is historically expensive relative to where it has traded over the period.

What is CF's Smart Value Score?

CF's Smart Value Score is 76/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.