CF Industries Holdings Inc
NYSE: CF · BASIC MATERIALS · AGRICULTURAL INPUTS
Updated 2026-06-12
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for CF.
Valued
Fundamentals support the current valuation. Strong combination of growth, quality, and price.
CF historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in CF's own 5Y range.
CF intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
CF valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 9.86x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 2.27x
Is CF overvalued in 2026?
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) currently trades at $109.48 per share with a market capitalization of $16,819,334,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock looks attractively valued with a Smart Value Score of 75/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 9.9x, below its 5-year median of 12.6x. The PEG ratio of 3.25 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.
Looking at its own history, CF is currently trading cheaper than 72% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 28th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates CF's intrinsic value at $217.58 per share, against the current market price of $109.48. This implies a margin of safety of +49.68%. A meaningful cushion exists against model error, making this a reasonable risk-adjusted entry.
The Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: CF looks attractively valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 75/100. The combination of reasonable price, healthy growth, and quality fundamentals makes it worth serious consideration.
Frequently asked questions
Is CF overvalued?
CF scores 75/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade B+), a strong overall profile. The DCF also shows a positive margin of safety, so price and fundamentals line up reasonably well.
What is CF's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates CF's intrinsic value at $217.58 per share, versus the current price of $109.48, a margin of safety of +49.68%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price below it means the market is pricing the stock below that conservative estimate.
What P/E ratio does CF trade at?
CF trades at a P/E of 9.9x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 12.6x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting below its own median means the stock is cheaper than usual relative to its earnings.
Is CF a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for CF is Buy, from a Smart Value Score of 75/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The rating leans on growth and financial strength, and valuation is usually the weakest leg for a name scoring this high. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does CF's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, CF sits in the 28th percentile of its own 5Y range, below its long-run median relative to where it has traded. A low percentile means today's multiple is near the bottom of its historical band.
What is CF's Smart Value Score?
CF's Smart Value Score is 75/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.