CF
CF Industries Holdings Inc
NYSE: CF · BASIC MATERIALS · AGRICULTURAL INPUTS
$109.48
+2.74% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$16.82B
P/E ratio
9.86
P/S ratio
2.27x
EPS (TTM)
$11.10
Dividend yield
1.88%
52W range
$75 – $141
Volume
3.5M
CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed CF price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$109.48
Today
Analyst consensus
$108.36
-1.02% · 12M
2030 Base
—
— future
NPV today
—
@ — WACC
14 analysts:
4 Buy9 Hold3 Sell
Management guidance
No specific CEO revenue targets found in provided data. Latest analyst consensus (FY2026) projects revenue of $7.14B (+0.78% growth) and $7.02B for FY2027 (-1.71% growth). Management has not publicly issued multi-year guidance through 2030.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
CF · CF Industries Holdings Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Base case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Bull case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
WallStSmart.com
CF financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.1B | $7.1B | $7.0B | $7.2B | $7.5B | $7.9B |
| Revenue growth | 19.3% | 0.8% | -1.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% |
| Net margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $9.15 | $9.01 | $7.40 | $7.85 | $8.50 | $9.15 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net debt | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $563.21 | $550.12 | $563.21 | $589.41 | $615.61 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.9B | $7.9B | $7.9B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 3.0x |
| Diluted shares | 0M | 0M | 0M |
| Net debt | — | — | — |
| Implied P/E † | — | — | — |
| 2030 Price | $— | $— | $— |
| NPV @ — | $— | $— | $— |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because CF is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $— base case
CF catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Iran-induced fertilizer supply constraints supporting nitrogen prices through 2026-2027
+ Blue ammonia and hydrogen economy expansion leveraging CF's ammonia production capacity
+ Global nitrogen demand recovery from agricultural sector and industrial applications
+ Strategic positioning as world's largest ammonia producer amid decarbonization trends
Key risks
- Antitrust investigation by US Department of Justice for potential price collusion (announced March 2026)
- Natural gas price volatility directly impacting production margins and competitiveness
- Nitrogen overcapacity concerns emerging post-2027 as geopolitical supply disruptions normalize
- Insider selling signals ($53.2M past month) despite stock strength suggests management skepticism
- Analyst downgrades trending negative (Mizuho downgraded to Sell March 18, 2026; BofA to Underperform)
Methodology · CF Industries Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast model
CF Industries Holdings Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 14 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-100% cumulative for CF by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory (— by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using — WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 3.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.
CF price target FAQ
How is the CF Industries Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The CF 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
What is the analyst consensus on CF stock?
14 analysts cover CF with an average 12-month price target of $108.36. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.