BHP Group Limited
NYSE: BHP · BASIC MATERIALS · OTHER INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINING
Updated 2026-04-30
BHP Group Limited (BHP) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for BHP.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
BHP historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in BHP's own 5Y range.
BHP intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
BHP valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 19.86x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 3.76x
Is BHP overvalued in 2026?
BHP Group Limited (BHP) currently trades at $79.30 per share with a market capitalization of $202,770,350,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 65/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19.9x, above its 5-year median of 19.0x. The PEG ratio of 5.95 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.
Looking at its own history, BHP is currently trading more expensive than 63% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 63th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates BHP's intrinsic value at $43.18 per share, against the current market price of $79.30. This implies a premium to fair value of -84.46%. The current price sits well above what projected cash flows justify, implying investors are paying for growth that has not yet materialized.
Financial quality is a concern. The Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 flags weakening fundamentals that deserve closer scrutiny before the valuation case can be fully trusted.
Bottom line: BHP trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 65/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is BHP overvalued in 2026?
Based on a Smart Value Score of 65/100, BHP is fairly valued. Price reasonably reflects current fundamentals with limited cushion in either direction.
What is BHP's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates BHP's intrinsic value at $43.18 per share, versus the current price of $79.30. This produces a margin of safety of -84.46%.
What P/E ratio does BHP trade at?
BHP trades at a P/E of 19.9x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 19.0x.
Is BHP a buy based on valuation?
WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 65/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile is balanced. Best suited for investors with an existing thesis.
How does BHP's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, BHP currently sits in the 63th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is above its long-run median relative to where it has traded over the period.
What is BHP's Smart Value Score?
BHP's Smart Value Score is 65/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.