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BHP

BHP Group Limited

NYSE: BHP · BASIC MATERIALS · OTHER INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINING

$79.30
+2.91% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$202.77B
P/E ratio
19.86
P/S ratio
3.76x
EPS (TTM)
$4.02
Dividend yield
1.67%
52W range
$44 – $82
Volume
3.5M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

BHP Group Limited (BHP) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$79.30
Consensus
$52.50
-33.80%
2030 Target
$307.61
+287.91%
DCF
$43.18
-84.46% MoS
6 analysts:
1 Buy4 Hold3 Sell

Management guidance

No specific CEO revenue targets disclosed in available documents. Brandon Craig assumes CEO role July 1, 2026, with stated focus on copper and potash growth execution. Management has guided FY26 capex to US$11 billion and iron ore production to 258-269 Mt for FY26, targeting 305+ Mt per annum by end of FY28.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$512.68
$65.8B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$307.61
$65.8B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$205.07
$65.8B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$53.8B$55.7B$51.3B$56.7B$55.0B$57.5B$61.2B$65.8B
Revenue growth—3.4%-7.9%10.6%-3.1%4.6%6.4%7.5%
EPS$1.27$2.60—$2.52$2.41$2.65$2.95$3.28
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$263.66$256.34$270.99$285.64$307.61

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Jansen potash project ramp-up (2028+) targeting 2-3% annual potash demand growth; BHP signals potash deficit by 2035
+ Copper production growth: Escondida New Concentrator and strategic focus on copper amid AI/electrification demand; copper contributed 50%+ of 2025 profits
+ Iron ore expansion: 305+ Mt per annum target by FY28 (vs. current 133.8 Mt in 1H26); WAIO record production and lowest-cost positioning
+ Wheaton Precious Metals $4.3B silver streaming deal (closed April 2026) unlocks capital for growth projects
+ New CEO Brandon Craig (copper-focused leader) takes helm July 2026, reinforcing 'future-facing commodities' strategy
Key risks
- China steel demand structural decline: BHP iron ore heavily exposed to Chinese demand; geopolitical fragmentation and decarbonization delays affecting demand
- Commodity price volatility: Revenue highly cyclical on iron ore, copper, coal prices; FY25 revenue declined 7.9% YoY despite production gains
- Project execution risk: Jansen potash and copper expansion capex-intensive; regulatory complexity, cost overruns, and delays could compress margins
- Analyst consensus weakness: 4-6 analyst coverage with Hold consensus; price targets suggest 28-39% downside; recent downgrades from Citigroup, Berenberg
- Capital intensity shift: Increased CapEx guidance to US$11B+ for growth projects will pressure free cash flow and dividend sustainability

Methodology

BHP Group Limited's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 6 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.