AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics Inc
NASDAQ: AXSM · HEALTHCARE · BIOTECHNOLOGY
$216.47
+0.36% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$13.13B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
18.54x
EPS (TTM)
$-3.73
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$96 – $258
Volume
0.7M
Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AXSM price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$216.47
Today
Analyst consensus
$251.00
+15.95% · 12M
2030 Base
$626.12
+189.24% future
NPV today
$444.78
@ 8% WACC
21 analysts:
18 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management projects AUVELITY peak sales of at least $8 billion annually across MDD and Alzheimer's agitation indications (split equally). This represents the primary revenue driver through 2030. Company is expanding sales force and advancing pipeline with multiple late-stage programs (AXS-12 for narcolepsy, AXS-20 for schizophrenia/Tourette's, solriamfetol in MDD with excessive daytime sleepiness). No specific 2026-2030 annual revenue targets provided, but $8B AUVELITY peak implies sustained high-growth trajectory.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AXSM · Axsome Therapeutics Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$238.33
NPV today: $169.30
Base case (2030)
$626.12
NPV today: $444.78
Bull case (2030)
$1,401.71
NPV today: $995.74
WallStSmart.com
AXSM financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.6B | $1.4B | $2.2B | $3.2B | $4.2B | $5.1B |
| Revenue growth | 65.5% | 111.4% | 61.5% | 46.8% | 29.7% | 23.4% |
| Net margin | — | 1.9% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 13.9% |
| EPS | $-3.69 | $0.50 | $3.20 | $6.50 | $9.80 | $13.50 |
| Diluted shares | — | 52M | 52M | 52M | 53M | 53M |
| Net debt | — | $568.32M | $1.66B | $3.26B | $5.33B | $7.89B |
| P/S multiple | — | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $197.64 | $303.03 | $426.86 | $529.77 | $626.12 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.1B | $5.1B | $5.1B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 8.0x | 16.0x |
| Diluted shares | 53M | 53M | 53M |
| Net debt | $7.89B | $7.89B | $7.89B |
| Implied P/E † | 18x | 46x | 104x |
| 2030 Price | $238.33 | $626.12 | $1,401.71 |
| NPV @ 8% | $169.30 | $444.78 | $995.74 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AXSM is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $626.12 base case
AXSM catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AUVELITY June 2026 launch for Alzheimer's agitation with doubled sales force and broad Medicare Part D coverage — $2-4B revenue opportunity
+ AXS-12 (solriamfetol) for narcolepsy and MDD pathway — Phase III underway; second major franchise opportunity
+ AXS-20 (PDE10A inhibitor) for schizophrenia and Tourette's — Phase III launch in 2026; addresses $3B+ schizophrenia market
+ Multiple pipeline candidates in CNS portfolio driving 2027-2030 incremental revenue streams
+ Margin expansion as AUVELITY scales and peak sales are realized — path to profitability 2026-2027
Key risks
- Competition in Alzheimer's agitation market; other therapies could erode AUVELITY's peak sales assumptions below $8B
- Clinical trial risk on AXS-12 and AXS-20 Phase III programs; failure would eliminate upside contributors
- Payer reimbursement pressure and formulary restrictions on newly approved Alzheimer's treatment
- Current operating losses ($64.5M in Q1 2026) and negative FCF trajectory; cash burn rate must improve or profitability delays
- High debt ($241M total debt, $146M LT debt) relative to EBITDA; if growth slows, refinancing risk
- Execution risk on sales force expansion and field setup; commercial ramp may disappoint relative to management expectations
Methodology · Axsome Therapeutics Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Axsome Therapeutics Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 21 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for AXSM by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($7.89B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.585) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 8.0x / bull 16.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
AXSM price target FAQ
What is the AXSM price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Axsome Therapeutics Inc 2030 base case is $626.12 per share, with a bull case of $1,401.71 and bear case of $238.33. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $444.78.
How is the Axsome Therapeutics Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AXSM 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the AXSM price target account for dilution?
Axsome Therapeutics Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 51M to 53M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on AXSM stock?
21 analysts cover AXSM with an average 12-month price target of $251.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.