AMZN
Amazon.com Inc
NASDAQ: AMZN · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · INTERNET RETAIL
$238.55
-1.23% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$2.76T
P/E ratio
31.63
P/S ratio
3.72x
EPS (TTM)
$8.11
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$196 – $279
Volume
45.3M
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AMZN price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$238.55
Today
Analyst consensus
$312.67
+31.07% · 12M
2030 Base
$497.56
+108.58% future
NPV today
$287.57
@ 13% WACC
60 analysts:
57 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Amazon management has not provided explicit revenue targets for 2026-2030 in recent earnings calls. However, AWS CEO Adam Selipsky and CFO Brian Olsavsky have emphasized aggressive capital expenditure ($131.8B in 2025, expanding further in 2026) for AI/ML infrastructure, indicating internal confidence in sustained high-growth revenue trajectory. Management's sustained 16%+ growth guidance through 2026-2027 and heavy cloud/AI investment signals confidence in $1T+ revenue opportunity by 2028-2030.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AMZN · Amazon.com Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$333.07
NPV today: $192.50
Base case (2030)
$497.56
NPV today: $287.57
Bull case (2030)
$662.05
NPV today: $382.63
WallStSmart.com
AMZN financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $716.9B | $920.0B | $1165.0B | $1418.0B | $1625.0B | $1825.0B |
| Revenue growth | 12.4% | 28.5% | 26.6% | 21.7% | 14.6% | 12.3% |
| Net margin | — | 13.2% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 14.5% | 14.4% |
| EPS | $7.17 | $11.20 | $14.85 | $18.50 | $21.30 | $23.75 |
| Diluted shares | — | 10832M | 10908M | 10974M | 11040M | 11095M |
| Net debt | — | $20.00B | $7.39B | $-7.95B | $-25.54B | $-45.29B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $252.94 | $319.72 | $388.38 | $443.91 | $497.56 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1825.0B | $1825.0B | $1825.0B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 4.0x |
| Diluted shares | 11095M | 11095M | 11095M |
| Net debt | $-45.29B | $-45.29B | $-45.29B |
| Implied P/E † | 14x | 21x | 28x |
| 2030 Price | $333.07 | $497.56 | $662.05 |
| NPV @ 13% | $192.50 | $287.57 | $382.63 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AMZN is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $497.56 base case
AMZN catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AWS accelerating adoption as hyperscalers scale AI capex ($60B+ Meta, $80B+ Microsoft through 2028); Amazon positioned to capture 20-25% of cloud infrastructure spend
+ Advertising revenue acceleration from retail media network and sponsored ads integration; current $50B+ ARR can grow 25-35% annually through 2028
+ International e-commerce expansion (India, Southeast Asia, Latin America) still in early innings; TAM of $500B+ e-commerce growth available through 2030
+ Amazon Stores (physical retail) and One ecosystem expanding; omnichannel integration driving margin expansion to 13-14% by 2029
+ AI agents for enterprise (Alexa+, shopping assistants) unlocking $100B+ TAM in conversational commerce by 2029
Key risks
- FTC antitrust litigation threatening AWS separation or forced divestitures; regulatory overhang could pressure growth assumptions and margin expectations
- EU Digital Markets Act and similar regulations globally constraining advertising/marketplace leverage; could reduce high-margin revenue contribution by 10-15%
- AWS competitive intensity from Microsoft Azure (40% growth) and Google Cloud (26% growth) eroding market share below 32%; AWS growth could decelerate to 15-20% by 2029
- Consumer tariff litigation and price sensitivity in 2026-2027 reducing retail margin expansion; economic slowdown could compress e-commerce growth to 8-10%
- Capital intensity of AI infrastructure ($150B+ cumulative through 2027) delaying profitability improvements; FCF decline could pressure multiple compression
Methodology · Amazon.com Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Amazon.com Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 60 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for AMZN by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-45.29B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 13% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.468) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 4.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
AMZN price target FAQ
What is the AMZN price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Amazon.com Inc 2030 base case is $497.56 per share, with a bull case of $662.05 and bear case of $333.07. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 13% WACC is $287.57.
How is the Amazon.com Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AMZN 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the AMZN price target account for dilution?
Amazon.com Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 10757M to 11095M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on AMZN stock?
60 analysts cover AMZN with an average 12-month price target of $312.67. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.