ACA
Arcosa Inc
NYSE: ACA · INDUSTRIALS · ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION
$129.60
-1.25% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$6.36B
P/E ratio
28.97
P/S ratio
2.19x
EPS (TTM)
$4.47
Dividend yield
0.16%
52W range
$82 – $136
Volume
0.3M
Arcosa Inc (ACA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ACA price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$129.60
Today
Analyst consensus
$141.00
+8.80% · 12M
2030 Base
$93.01
-28.23% future
NPV today
$58.94
@ 10% WACC
7 analysts:
3 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Arcosa raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $2.6B-$2.7B (midpoint $2.65B, +3.1% vs prior $2.54B-$2.67B). CEO emphasized robust utility structures demand, record backlog, and wind tower-to-utility structure conversion capacity driving near-term growth. Post-barge divestiture ($450M proceeds), company repositioning toward higher-margin infrastructure-led segments with focus on government-funded construction and renewable energy capex.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ACA · Arcosa Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$93.01
NPV today: $58.94
Base case (2030)
$93.01
NPV today: $58.94
Bull case (2030)
$195.64
NPV today: $123.99
WallStSmart.com
ACA financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | $2.6B | $3.2B | $3.8B | $4.5B | $5.1B |
| Revenue growth | 12.2% | 5.6% | 20.2% | 20.1% | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| Net margin | — | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% |
| EPS | $4.47 | $4.75 | $5.95 | $7.35 | $8.75 | $10.05 |
| Diluted shares | — | 49M | 49M | 50M | 50M | 50M |
| Net debt | — | $1.24B | $1.10B | $920.64M | $714.76M | $480.24M |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $28.57 | $42.26 | $58.57 | $76.00 | $93.01 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.1B | $5.1B | $5.1B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 50M | 50M | 50M |
| Net debt | $480.24M | $480.24M | $480.24M |
| Implied P/E † | 9x | 9x | 20x |
| 2030 Price | $93.01 | $93.01 | $195.64 |
| NPV @ 10% | $58.94 | $58.94 | $123.99 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ACA is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $93.01 base case
ACA catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Barge divestiture completion ($450M) enabling debt paydown and M&A for accretive infrastructure acquisitions
+ Wind tower-to-utility structures capacity conversion driving margin expansion and higher-growth revenue mix
+ Record utility structures backlog conversion through 2027-2028 supporting revenue acceleration in near term
+ U.S. government infrastructure spending (IRA, IIJA) tailwinds benefiting construction products and engineered structures segments
+ Strategic reinvestment of barge proceeds into higher-growth platforms expected to drive 2027+ revenue lift
Key risks
- Government spending delays or policy shifts reducing infrastructure capex demand
- Cyclicality in construction products segment tied to residential/commercial real estate cycles
- Execution risk on capacity conversions and M&A integration diluting near-term margins
- Supply chain disruptions affecting manufacturing timelines and project delivery
- Competitive pricing pressure in utility structures and construction products as market expands
Methodology · Arcosa Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Arcosa Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 7 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for ACA by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($480.24M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.076) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
ACA price target FAQ
What is the ACA price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Arcosa Inc 2030 base case is $93.01 per share, with a bull case of $195.64 and bear case of $93.01. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $58.94.
How is the Arcosa Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ACA 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ACA price target account for dilution?
Arcosa Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 49M to 50M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on ACA stock?
7 analysts cover ACA with an average 12-month price target of $141.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.