AAON Inc
NASDAQ: AAON · INDUSTRIALS · BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT
Updated 2026-06-05
AAON Inc (AAON) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for AAON.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
AAON historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in AAON's own 5Y range.
AAON intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
AAON valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 89.57x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 6.44x
Is AAON overvalued in 2026?
AAON Inc (AAON) currently trades at $141.70 per share with a market capitalization of $10,418,351,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 57/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 89.6x, above its 5-year median of 53.2x. The PEG ratio of 3.82 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.
Looking at its own history, AAON is currently trading more expensive than 90% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 90th percentile of its historical range, a zone where forward returns have typically been muted.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates AAON's intrinsic value at $114.28 per share, against the current market price of $141.70. This implies a margin of safety of +10.12%. The stock is priced close to its estimated fair value, offering limited upside without further operational improvement.
Financial quality is a concern. The Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 flags weakening fundamentals that deserve closer scrutiny before the valuation case can be fully trusted.
Bottom line: AAON trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 57/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is AAON overvalued?
AAON scores 57/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade C+), a mixed overall profile. The DCF also shows a positive margin of safety, so price and fundamentals line up reasonably well.
What is AAON's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates AAON's intrinsic value at $114.28 per share, versus the current price of $141.70, a margin of safety of +10.12%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price below it means the market is pricing the stock below that conservative estimate.
What P/E ratio does AAON trade at?
AAON trades at a P/E of 89.6x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 53.2x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting above its own median means the stock is pricier than usual relative to its earnings.
Is AAON a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for AAON is Hold, from a Smart Value Score of 57/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile is balanced and best suited to investors who already have a thesis. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does AAON's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, AAON sits in the 90th percentile of its own 5Y range, historically expensive relative to where it has traded. A high percentile means today's multiple is near the top of its historical band.
What is AAON's Smart Value Score?
AAON's Smart Value Score is 57/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.