AAON
AAON Inc
NASDAQ: AAON · INDUSTRIALS · BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT
$141.70
-7.68% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$10.42B
P/E ratio
89.57
P/S ratio
6.44x
EPS (TTM)
$1.42
Dividend yield
0.31%
52W range
$62 – $150
Volume
1.1M
AAON Inc (AAON) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AAON price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$141.70
Today
Analyst consensus
$125.86
-11.18% · 12M
2030 Base
$164.02
+15.75% future
NPV today
$100.13
@ 11% WACC
7 analysts:
6 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Management raised 2026 full-year guidance following record Q1 2026 results (Q1 revenue $496.9M, +54.3% YoY). CEO Matthew Tobolski has emphasized aggressive data center HVAC opportunity with record backlog and capacity expansion underway. Specific 2026 revenue target implied ~$1.75B-$1.8B based on raised guidance (up from prior $1.62B TTM), reflecting 21-25% full-year growth. No explicit 2027-2030 targets disclosed, but management commentary emphasizes 'multi-year secular tailwind' from hyperscaler AI infrastructure capex ($150B+ annually through 2028).
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AAON · AAON Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$107.51
NPV today: $65.63
Base case (2030)
$164.02
NPV today: $100.13
Bull case (2030)
$390.06
NPV today: $238.12
WallStSmart.com
AAON financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.4B | $3.1B | $3.9B | $4.7B |
| Revenue growth | 20.1% | 25.0% | 32.5% | 29.7% | 25.1% | 20.3% |
| Net margin | — | 9.6% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 14.3% |
| EPS | $1.32 | $2.10 | $3.40 | $4.95 | $6.55 | $8.10 |
| Diluted shares | — | 82M | 82M | 82M | 82M | 82M |
| Net debt | — | $385.66M | $397.25M | $412.28M | $431.09M | $453.70M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $61.16 | $82.34 | $107.89 | $135.86 | $164.02 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.7B | $4.7B | $4.7B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 82M | 82M | 82M |
| Net debt | $453.70M | $453.70M | $453.70M |
| Implied P/E † | 13x | 20x | 48x |
| 2030 Price | $107.51 | $164.02 | $390.06 |
| NPV @ 11% | $65.63 | $100.13 | $238.12 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AAON is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $164.02 base case
AAON catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Data center HVAC demand acceleration: hyperscaler AI capex ($Meta $60B, $Microsoft $80B+) drives 40-50%+ AAON revenue growth through 2027-2028
+ Record backlog conversion: $900M+ backlog provides near-certain revenue visibility through mid-2027; capacity additions unlock $2B+ revenue by 2028
+ Tariff mitigation & outsourcing normalization: Q1 2026 margin pressure from tariffs/outsourcing temporary; pricing power + operational leverage deliver 500+ bps margin expansion by 2028
+ Market share gains: AAON is #1 or #2 in commercial HVAC; data center segment represents greenfield opportunity vs. legacy HVAC competitors
Key risks
- Data center capex cliff risk: if hyperscaler AI spend decelerates post-2027, AAON demand could contract 20-30% in 2028-2029
- Tariff escalation: ongoing US-China tariffs could further pressure margins or force price increases that slow demand
- Supply chain disruption: rapid capacity expansion (new facilities) could face labor/supply constraints, delaying revenue realization
- Competitive intensity: established HVAC peers (Carrier, Trane) or new entrants may capture data center share, limiting AAON's addressable market growth
- Working capital burn: Q1 2026 inventory surged 57.5% YoY; rapid revenue growth may require sustained capex/working capital, pressuring FCF
Methodology · AAON Inc 2030 stock forecast model
AAON Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 7 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for AAON by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($453.70M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.245) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
AAON price target FAQ
What is the AAON price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's AAON Inc 2030 base case is $164.02 per share, with a bull case of $390.06 and bear case of $107.51. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $100.13.
How is the AAON Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AAON 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the AAON price target account for dilution?
AAON Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 82M to 82M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on AAON stock?
7 analysts cover AAON with an average 12-month price target of $125.86. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.