Accel Entertainment Inc (ACEL)vsChurchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)
ACEL
Accel Entertainment Inc
$11.26
-0.27%
CONSUMER CYCLICAL · Cap: $908.63M
CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated
$87.20
+1.34%
CONSUMER CYCLICAL · Cap: $6.00B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
Churchill Downs Incorporated generates 120% more annual revenue ($2.93B vs $1.33B). CHDN leads profitability with a 13.1% profit margin vs 3.9%. CHDN trades at a lower P/E of 16.3x. CHDN earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 55/100 (C-).
ACEL
Buy54
out of 100
Grade: C-
CHDN
Buy55
out of 100
Grade: C-
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
+60.5%
Fair Value
$28.08
Current Price
$11.26
$16.82 discount
Margin of Safety
-163.5%
Fair Value
$35.97
Current Price
$87.20
$51.23 premium
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Earnings expanding 109.3% YoY
Every $100 of equity generates 36 in profit
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Areas to Watch
Smaller company, higher risk/reward
3.9% margin — thin
Negative free cash flow — burning cash
Elevated debt levels
Expensive relative to growth rate
Earnings declined 25.2%
Distress zone — elevated risk
Elevated debt levels
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : ACEL
The strongest argument for ACEL centers on EPS Growth.
Bull Case : CHDN
The strongest argument for CHDN centers on Return on Equity, P/E Ratio.
Bear Case : ACEL
The primary concerns for ACEL are Market Cap, Profit Margin, Free Cash Flow. Debt-to-equity of 2.26 is elevated, increasing financial risk. Thin 3.9% margins leave little buffer for downturns.
Bear Case : CHDN
The primary concerns for CHDN are PEG Ratio, EPS Growth, Altman Z-Score. Debt-to-equity of 4.93 is elevated, increasing financial risk.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
ACEL carries more volatility with a beta of 1.07 — expect wider price swings.
ACEL is growing revenue faster at 7.5% — sustainability is the question.
CHDN generates stronger free cash flow (16M), providing more financial flexibility.
Monitor GAMBLING industry trends, competitive dynamics, and regulatory changes.
Bottom Line
CHDN scores higher overall (55/100 vs 54/100). ACEL offers better value entry with a 60.5% margin of safety. Both earn "Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
Accel Entertainment Inc
CONSUMER CYCLICAL · GAMBLING · USA
Accel Entertainment, Inc., is a distributed games operator in the United States. The company is headquartered in Burr Ridge, Illinois.
Churchill Downs Incorporated
CONSUMER CYCLICAL · GAMBLING · USA
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a gaming, online betting and racing entertainment company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
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