ZVRA
Zevra Therapeutics Inc.
NASDAQ: ZVRA · HEALTHCARE · BIOTECHNOLOGY
$10.80
-5.01% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$747.81M
P/E ratio
6.29
P/S ratio
6.12x
EPS (TTM)
$2.01
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$7 – $14
Volume
1.3M
Zevra Therapeutics Inc. (ZVRA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ZVRA price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$10.80
Today
Analyst consensus
$25.00
+131.48% · 12M
2030 Base
$13.53
+25.28% future
NPV today
$8.98
@ 9% WACC
9 analysts:
7 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue guidance through 2030. However, CEO Neil McFarlane emphasized in Q1 2026 earnings that MIPLYFFA is the company's commercial flagship for Niemann-Pick Disease Type C (NPC), a rare disease with significant unmet need. The recent Orange Book listing extending exclusivity to 2041 removes generic competition risk and positions MIPLYFFA for sustained revenue growth. Management indicated the company is debt-free with $236.8M cash post-SDX divestiture, providing runway to fund growth without equity dilution.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ZVRA · Zevra Therapeutics Inc. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$6.20
NPV today: $4.12
Base case (2030)
$13.53
NPV today: $8.98
Bull case (2030)
$20.86
NPV today: $13.85
WallStSmart.com
ZVRA financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.1B | $0.2B | $0.3B | $0.3B | $0.4B | $0.5B |
| Revenue growth | 350.9% | 69.0% | 44.0% | 31.0% | 19.0% | 14.0% |
| Net margin | — | 45.0% | 49.0% | 49.7% | 48.3% | 47.7% |
| EPS | $0.06 | $1.35 | $2.10 | $2.75 | $3.15 | $3.50 |
| Diluted shares | — | 60M | 61M | 61M | 62M | 63M |
| Net debt | — | $-109.47M | $20.53M | $190.53M | $393.03M | $623.03M |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 3.8x | 3.6x | 3.4x | 3.2x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $13.84 | $15.93 | $16.82 | $15.84 | $13.53 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | $0.5B | $0.5B |
| P/S multiple | 2.2x | 3.2x | 4.2x |
| Diluted shares | 63M | 63M | 63M |
| Net debt | $623.03M | $623.03M | $623.03M |
| Implied P/E † | 2x | 4x | 6x |
| 2030 Price | $6.20 | $13.53 | $20.86 |
| NPV @ 9% | $4.12 | $8.98 | $13.85 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ZVRA is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $13.53 base case
ZVRA catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ MIPLYFFA Orange Book listing (expiry 2041) eliminates generic competition risk and validates monopoly pricing power in ultra-rare NPC market
+ Pending patent term extension for earlier patent (No. 11,045,460, expiry 2029) could provide additional exclusivity runway
+ OLPRUVA (celiprolol) Phase III advancement for vascular Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (VEDS)—another ultra-rare indication with limited treatment options
+ International expansion of MIPLYFFA through distribution agreements (December 2025 agreement announced) to broaden addressable market beyond US
+ Real-world evidence accumulation on MIPLYFFA efficacy in NPC patients (positive data presented at WORLDSymposium Feb 2026) supports label expansion potential
Key risks
- NPC market size is ultra-rare (estimated 500-1,000 patients in US, ~3,000-5,000 globally)—ceiling on MIPLYFFA revenue is inherently limited; peak sales likely $200-300M annually, not $1B+
- OLPRUVA (celiprolol) Phase III failure would eliminate major pipeline asset; vascular EDHS is also ultra-rare with uncertain market adoption
- Competitive entry: while Orange Book provides IP protection, future competitors (e.g., gene therapy approaches) could disrupt current monopoly
- Reimbursement/pricing pressure: rare disease therapies face increasing payer scrutiny; loss of exclusivity or managed care restrictions could pressure gross margins from current 93%
- Small employee base (61 headcount) and limited commercial infrastructure outside MIPLYFFA create execution risk; scaling international distribution may prove costly
- Recent net income spike ($37.89M in Q1 2026) was partly driven by one-time SDX divestiture ($50M) and debt repayment—recurring operating income is much lower ($1.5-2M run-rate in Q1), creating earnings sustainability concerns
Methodology · Zevra Therapeutics Inc. 2030 stock forecast model
Zevra Therapeutics Inc. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 9 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (6% cumulative for ZVRA by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($623.03M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.883) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.2x / base 3.2x / bull 4.2x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: June 8, 2026.
ZVRA price target FAQ
What is the ZVRA price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Zevra Therapeutics Inc. 2030 base case is $13.53 per share, with a bull case of $20.86 and bear case of $6.20. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $8.98.
How is the Zevra Therapeutics Inc. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ZVRA 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ZVRA price target account for dilution?
Zevra Therapeutics Inc. is projected to grow diluted share count from 59M to 63M by 2030 (a 6% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 6%.
What is the analyst consensus on ZVRA stock?
9 analysts cover ZVRA with an average 12-month price target of $25.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.