WSO
Watsco Inc
NYSE: WSO · INDUSTRIALS · INDUSTRIAL DISTRIBUTION
$424.75
+0.63% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$15.67B
P/E ratio
31.26
P/S ratio
2.16x
EPS (TTM)
$12.17
Dividend yield
3.12%
52W range
$318 – $483
Volume
0.5M
Watsco Inc (WSO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed WSO price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$424.75
Today
Analyst consensus
$412.00
-3.00% · 12M
2030 Base
$315.32
-25.76% future
NPV today
$198.17
@ 11% WACC
14 analysts:
1 Buy12 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030. Q1 2026 earnings showed stabilizing markets and improved operating efficiency post-A2L refrigerant transition. CEO Albert Nahmad signaled confidence through a 10% dividend increase to $13.20 annually, indicating conviction in sustainable cash flow generation, though near-term guidance (Jan-Feb 2026) reflected mid-single-digit sales declines.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
WSO · Watsco Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$315.32
NPV today: $198.17
Base case (2030)
$315.32
NPV today: $198.17
Bull case (2030)
$609.50
NPV today: $383.06
WallStSmart.com
WSO financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.2B | $7.8B | $8.3B | $8.9B | $9.6B | $10.4B |
| Revenue growth | -5.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Net margin | — | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% |
| EPS | $12.11 | $13.20 | $14.80 | $16.40 | $18.20 | $20.10 |
| Diluted shares | — | 35M | 35M | 35M | 35M | 35M |
| Net debt | — | $-31.77M | $-191.16M | $-362.61M | $-547.29M | $-746.14M |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $221.87 | $242.18 | $264.46 | $289.01 | $315.32 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.4B | $10.4B | $10.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 35M | 35M | 35M |
| Net debt | $-746.14M | $-746.14M | $-746.14M |
| Implied P/E † | 16x | 16x | 30x |
| 2030 Price | $315.32 | $315.32 | $609.50 |
| NPV @ 11% | $198.17 | $198.17 | $383.06 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because WSO is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $315.32 base case
WSO catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ A2L refrigerant transition stabilization and margin recovery (2026-2027)
+ Jackson Supply Company acquisition integration and synergy realization
+ E-commerce and technology platform adoption driving operational leverage
+ HVAC/R market recovery as new construction and retrofit cycles normalize (2027+)
+ Potential for bolt-on acquisitions leveraging debt-free balance sheet and $1.5B+ cash position
Key risks
- HVAC/R demand cyclicality tied to housing starts and new construction — currently in soft patch (2026)
- Macro sensitivity: residential construction weakness could pressure volumes through 2027
- Competitive pricing pressure and margin compression as A2L transition commoditizes product mix
- Tariff policy uncertainty impacting cost of goods and supplier relationships
- Market share losses to online-first competitors if technology investments underperform
Methodology · Watsco Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Watsco Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 14 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-1% cumulative for WSO by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-746.14M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.102) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
WSO price target FAQ
What is the WSO price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Watsco Inc 2030 base case is $315.32 per share, with a bull case of $609.50 and bear case of $315.32. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $198.17.
How is the Watsco Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The WSO 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the WSO price target account for dilution?
Watsco Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 36M to 35M by 2030 (a -1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately -1%.
What is the analyst consensus on WSO stock?
14 analysts cover WSO with an average 12-month price target of $412.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.