WMT
Walmart Inc.
NASDAQ: WMT · CONSUMER DEFENSIVE · DISCOUNT STORES
$121.04
+0.45% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$899.74B
P/E ratio
39.81
P/S ratio
1.24x
EPS (TTM)
$2.84
Dividend yield
0.83%
52W range
$93 – $135
Volume
20.0M
Walmart Inc. (WMT) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed WMT price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$121.04
Today
Analyst consensus
$138.88
+14.74% · 12M
2030 Base
$110.47
-8.73% future
NPV today
$77.15
@ 8% WACC
43 analysts:
32 Buy2 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Walmart has not disclosed specific revenue targets for 2026-2030 in the provided data. CEO Douglas McMillon has emphasized growth in higher-margin segments (advertising, membership services) and omnichannel expansion. The company's historical 5-year revenue CAGR of 5.0% reflects mature-market constraints, but management is targeting acceleration through advertising (Walmart Media Group) and membership monetization initiatives.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
WMT · Walmart Inc. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$54.37
NPV today: $37.97
Base case (2030)
$110.47
NPV today: $77.15
Bull case (2030)
$222.67
NPV today: $155.50
WallStSmart.com
WMT financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $713.2B | $795.9B | $832.4B | $866.7B | $898.8B |
| Revenue growth | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% |
| Net margin | — | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| EPS | $0.66 | $3.18 | $3.42 | $3.65 | $3.88 |
| Diluted shares | — | 7987M | 7995M | 8003M | 8011M |
| Net debt | — | $40.45B | $31.92B | $23.03B | $13.82B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $94.59 | $100.12 | $105.42 | $110.47 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $898.8B | $898.8B | $898.8B |
| P/S multiple | 0.5x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 8011M | 8011M | 8011M |
| Net debt | $13.82B | $13.82B | $13.82B |
| Implied P/E † | 14x | 29x | 57x |
| 2030 Price | $54.37 | $110.47 | $222.67 |
| NPV @ 8% | $37.97 | $77.15 | $155.50 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because WMT is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $110.47 base case
WMT catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Expansion of Walmart+ membership and advertising revenue (higher-margin segments growing 25-35% annually)
+ E-commerce acceleration and omnichannel optimization (digitally-enabled sales growing 15-20% YoY)
+ International expansion and Sam's Club penetration driving same-store sales growth
+ AI-powered supply chain and pricing optimization improving operational margins
+ Rural America logistics expansion and rural broadband strategy creating new TAM
Key risks
- Mature U.S. retail market with limited total addressable market growth (underlying retail growth ~2-3% annually)
- Heavy competition from Amazon in e-commerce and increasingly from COST in discount retail
- Margin pressure from freight, labor, and energy costs despite pricing power
- Advertising and membership revenues are higher-margin but represent only ~5-8% of total revenue today; growth insufficient to offset mature core retail deceleration at scale
- Valuation risk: P/E of 48-49x prices in significant growth premium for a mature retailer; multiple compression risk if growth disappoints
Methodology · Walmart Inc. 2030 stock forecast model
Walmart Inc. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 43 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for WMT by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($13.82B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.652) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 0.5x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
WMT price target FAQ
What is the WMT price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Walmart Inc. 2030 base case is $110.47 per share, with a bull case of $222.67 and bear case of $54.37. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $77.15.
How is the Walmart Inc. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The WMT 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the WMT price target account for dilution?
Walmart Inc. is projected to grow diluted share count from 7958M to 8011M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on WMT stock?
43 analysts cover WMT with an average 12-month price target of $138.88. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.