WM
Waste Management Inc
NYSE: WM · INDUSTRIALS · WASTE MANAGEMENT
$219.45
+0.30% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$85.11B
P/E ratio
30.67
P/S ratio
3.35x
EPS (TTM)
$6.91
Dividend yield
1.61%
52W range
$193 – $247
Volume
2.0M
Waste Management Inc (WM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed WM price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$219.45
Today
Analyst consensus
$255.16
+16.27% · 12M
2030 Base
—
— future
NPV today
—
@ — WACC
21 analysts:
7 Buy7 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
No specific CEO revenue guidance for 2026-2030 found in available documents. Management focuses on operational execution, margin expansion, and strategic acquisitions rather than publishing multi-year revenue targets.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
WM · Waste Management Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Base case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Bull case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
WallStSmart.com
WM financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.2B | $27.3B | $28.8B | $30.3B | $31.9B | $33.5B |
| Revenue growth | 14.2% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% |
| Net margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $7.50 | $8.45 | $9.64 | $10.80 | $11.95 | $13.15 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net debt | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $823.97 | $871.05 | $918.14 | $965.22 | $1,012.31 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.5B | $33.5B | $33.5B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 4.0x |
| Diluted shares | 0M | 0M | 0M |
| Net debt | — | — | — |
| Implied P/E † | — | — | — |
| 2030 Price | $— | $— | $— |
| NPV @ — | $— | $— | $— |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because WM is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $— base case
WM catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ 20 renewable natural gas (RNG) plants under development - generates carbon credits and diversifies revenue streams
+ Pricing power in essential waste services with municipal contracts providing revenue stability
+ Strategic M&A activity to consolidate fragmented waste management market
+ Margin expansion initiatives and operational cost discipline offsetting commodity headwinds
+ ESG/sustainability tailwinds as environmental regulations tighten
Key risks
- High leverage (Debt/Equity 2.39x, LT Debt/Eq 2.31x) limits financial flexibility for acquisitions
- Low liquidity (current ratio 0.89, quick ratio 0.85) constrains capital deployment
- Recent Q4 2025 earnings miss (both revenue and EPS below consensus) signals integration challenges
- Commodity price volatility (recycled materials, fuel costs) pressures margins
- Labor cost inflation and potential labor disruptions in unionized workforce
- Modest growth momentum relative to valuation (P/E 34.5x, PEG 2.25)
Methodology · Waste Management Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Waste Management Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 21 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-100% cumulative for WM by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory (— by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using — WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 4.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.
WM price target FAQ
How is the Waste Management Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The WM 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
What is the analyst consensus on WM stock?
21 analysts cover WM with an average 12-month price target of $255.16. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.