WallStSmart
WCN

Waste Connections Inc

NYSE: WCN · INDUSTRIALS · WASTE MANAGEMENT

$163.75
+0.13% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$41.61B
P/E ratio
40.04
P/S ratio
4.33x
EPS (TTM)
$4.09
Dividend yield
0.81%
52W range
$155 – $198
Volume
1.5M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Waste Connections Inc (WCN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$163.75
Consensus
$204.00
+24.58%
2030 Target
$597.89
+265.12%
DCF
$169.53
-1.28% MoS
19 analysts:
10 Buy3 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

WCN management provided 2026 outlook with revenue expected to reach $10.05B (6.14% growth from 2025's $9.47B). Company emphasized pricing power in solid waste, successful M&A integration, and margin expansion initiatives. No specific guidance provided for 2027-2030.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$996.48
$12.7B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$597.89
$12.7B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$398.59
$12.7B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$8.0B$8.9B$9.5B$10.7B$11.3B$12.0B$12.7B
Revenue growth—11.2%6.5%6.1%6.1%5.9%5.8%
EPS$4.19$4.79$5.15$6.32$7.08$7.86$8.67
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$498.24$531.46$564.67$597.89

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Pricing power in solid waste segment with 150 bps net income expansion in Q1 2026
+ Strategic M&A activity with $600M senior notes offering (closed March 2026) to fund growth
+ Margin expansion initiatives and operational efficiency gains driving profitability
+ AI and RNG investment opportunities previewed for 2026
+ Share repurchase program supporting capital allocation discipline
+ Appointment of Fastenal CEO to board brings financial and operational expertise
Key risks
- High valuation at 39.8x P/E and 4.47x P/S ratio limits upside from stock appreciation
- Growth deceleration from 11.8% 5Y CAGR to 6.1% near-term reflects market maturity
- Elevated debt levels (Debt/Eq: 1.11, LT Debt/Eq: 1.10) limit financial flexibility
- Competitive intensity in waste management with WM ($25.2B revenue) and RSG ($16.6B) dominant
- Regulatory and environmental pressures on traditional landfill operations
- Economic sensitivity: waste volumes correlate with construction/manufacturing activity

Methodology

Waste Connections Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 19 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.