WCN
Waste Connections Inc
NYSE: WCN · INDUSTRIALS · WASTE MANAGEMENT
$150.98
+0.82% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$39.66B
P/E ratio
37.98
P/S ratio
4.13x
EPS (TTM)
$4.11
Dividend yield
0.86%
52W range
$147 – $190
Volume
1.6M
Waste Connections Inc (WCN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed WCN price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$150.98
Today
Analyst consensus
$204.00
+35.12% · 12M
2030 Base
—
— future
NPV today
—
@ — WACC
19 analysts:
10 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
WCN management provided 2026 outlook with revenue expected to reach $10.05B (6.14% growth from 2025's $9.47B). Company emphasized pricing power in solid waste, successful M&A integration, and margin expansion initiatives. No specific guidance provided for 2027-2030.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
WCN · Waste Connections Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Base case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Bull case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
WallStSmart.com
WCN financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.5B | $10.7B | $11.3B | $12.0B | $12.7B |
| Revenue growth | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| Net margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $5.15 | $6.32 | $7.08 | $7.86 | $8.67 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $498.24 | $531.46 | $564.67 | $597.89 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.7B | $12.7B | $12.7B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 4.0x |
| Diluted shares | 0M | 0M | 0M |
| Net debt | — | — | — |
| Implied P/E † | — | — | — |
| 2030 Price | $— | $— | $— |
| NPV @ — | $— | $— | $— |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because WCN is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $— base case
WCN catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Pricing power in solid waste segment with 150 bps net income expansion in Q1 2026
+ Strategic M&A activity with $600M senior notes offering (closed March 2026) to fund growth
+ Margin expansion initiatives and operational efficiency gains driving profitability
+ AI and RNG investment opportunities previewed for 2026
+ Share repurchase program supporting capital allocation discipline
+ Appointment of Fastenal CEO to board brings financial and operational expertise
Key risks
- High valuation at 39.8x P/E and 4.47x P/S ratio limits upside from stock appreciation
- Growth deceleration from 11.8% 5Y CAGR to 6.1% near-term reflects market maturity
- Elevated debt levels (Debt/Eq: 1.11, LT Debt/Eq: 1.10) limit financial flexibility
- Competitive intensity in waste management with WM ($25.2B revenue) and RSG ($16.6B) dominant
- Regulatory and environmental pressures on traditional landfill operations
- Economic sensitivity: waste volumes correlate with construction/manufacturing activity
Methodology · Waste Connections Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Waste Connections Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 19 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-100% cumulative for WCN by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory (— by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using — WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 4.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.
WCN price target FAQ
How is the Waste Connections Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The WCN 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
What is the analyst consensus on WCN stock?
19 analysts cover WCN with an average 12-month price target of $204.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.