VTR
Ventas Inc
NYSE: VTR · REAL ESTATE · REIT - HEALTHCARE FACILITIES
$83.45
-1.36% today
Updated 2026-06-15
Market cap
$41.13B
P/E ratio
153.82
P/S ratio
6.73x
EPS (TTM)
$0.55
Dividend yield
2.34%
52W range
$61 – $91
Volume
4.2M
Ventas Inc (VTR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed VTR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$83.45
Today
Analyst consensus
$95.40
+14.32% · 12M
2030 Base
$33.79
-59.51% future
NPV today
$23.00
@ 9% WACC
21 analysts:
14 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Ventas management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets in recent guidance. However, Q1 2026 results and full-year 2026 outlook reflect strong momentum: FY2026 revenue guidance of $6.71B (15.4% growth from $5.82B in 2025), driven primarily by senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP) organic growth of 15% in same-store cash NOI. Management emphasizes demographic tailwinds (aging population), portfolio quality, and strategic acquisitions as growth drivers through the decade, with senior housing and medical office as core growth vectors.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
VTR · Ventas Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$14.80
NPV today: $10.07
Base case (2030)
$33.79
NPV today: $23.00
Bull case (2030)
$109.76
NPV today: $74.72
WallStSmart.com
VTR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.8B | $6.7B | $7.4B | $8.0B | $8.7B | $9.3B |
| Revenue growth | 18.5% | 15.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% |
| Net margin | — | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% |
| EPS | $0.52 | $0.65 | $1.09 | $1.35 | $1.55 | $1.72 |
| Diluted shares | — | 487M | 487M | 488M | 488M | 489M |
| Net debt | — | $12.45B | $12.20B | $11.93B | $11.64B | $11.33B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $15.77 | $20.39 | $24.99 | $29.37 | $33.79 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.3B | $9.3B | $9.3B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 489M | 489M | 489M |
| Net debt | $11.33B | $11.33B | $11.33B |
| Implied P/E † | 9x | 20x | 64x |
| 2030 Price | $14.80 | $33.79 | $109.76 |
| NPV @ 9% | $10.07 | $23.00 | $74.72 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because VTR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $33.79 base case
VTR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP) same-store cash NOI growth acceleration (15% in Q1 2026) driven by occupancy recovery and rate growth
+ Demographic tailwind: US population aged 75+ projected to grow 3.5-4.0% CAGR through 2030, supporting senior housing demand and pricing power
+ M&A activity and capital deployment: $3B ATM program expansion provides flexibility for strategic acquisitions in high-quality senior housing and medical office assets
+ Medical office portfolio stabilization and potential upside from life science and outpatient capex recovery post-pandemic normalization
Key risks
- Senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP) exposure to labor cost inflation, staffing constraints, and operational risk if occupancy deteriorates or operators underperform
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT valuation dependent on cap rates and borrowing costs; refinancing pressure if rates remain elevated
- Healthcare policy risk: Changes to Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement rates, skilled nursing facility regulations, or assisted living licensure could compress operator margins and rental growth
- Valuation risk: Stock has rallied 45% in 12 months and trades at elevated multiples (158.7x trailing P/E, 7.08x P/S); limited margin of safety despite growth
- Dividend sustainability: Payout ratio of 353% on TTM basis is unsustainable; future dividend growth may decelerate or require equity issuance to fund
Methodology · Ventas Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Ventas Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 21 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for VTR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($11.33B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.763) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
VTR price target FAQ
What is the VTR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Ventas Inc 2030 base case is $33.79 per share, with a bull case of $109.76 and bear case of $14.80. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $23.00.
How is the Ventas Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The VTR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the VTR price target account for dilution?
Ventas Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 486M to 489M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on VTR stock?
21 analysts cover VTR with an average 12-month price target of $95.40. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.