Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed VST price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$148.02
Today
Analyst consensus
$234.09
+58.15% · 12M
2030 Base
—
— future
NPV today
—
@ — WACC
11 analysts:
7 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Vistra management has provided 2026 guidance of $23.25B revenue (31.08% growth from 2025's $17.74B) and expects continued strong growth trajectory through 2027-2028 driven by data center demand in ERCOT, with nearly 3.8 GW of 20-year nuclear PPAs locked in at investment-grade counterparties (Meta, AWS). CEO emphasizes multi-year visibility through contracted hedging and nuclear power purchase agreements extending to 2027-2028.
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
2030E driver
Bear
Base
Bull
Revenue
$37.5B
$37.5B
$37.5B
P/S multiple
1.0x
1.0x
3.0x
Diluted shares
0M
0M
0M
Net debt
—
—
—
Implied P/E †
—
—
—
2030 Price
$—
$—
$—
NPV @ —
$—
$—
$—
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because VST is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $— base case
VST catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AI data center power demand acceleration in Texas ERCOT market (2027-2028 peak load growth)
+ Meta and AWS long-term nuclear power purchase agreements (20-year contracts providing revenue certainty)
+ Investment-grade credit ratings upgrade from S&P and Fitch (lower cost of capital, greater financing flexibility)
+ Retail electricity and commercial operations margin expansion
+ Nuclear production tax credit monetization and extended contract visibility
- Recession-driven reduction in data center capex spending or delayed power demand growth
Methodology · Vistra Corp. 2030 stock forecast model
Vistra Corp. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
1. Share dilution
Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-100% cumulative for VST by 2030)
2. Net debt
EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory (— by 2030)
3. Time value
NPV calculated using — WACC (sector fallback)
4. Multiple framework
P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 3.0x
5. Scenario design
Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.
VST price target FAQ
How is the Vistra Corp. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The VST 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
What is the analyst consensus on VST stock?
11 analysts cover VST with an average 12-month price target of $234.09. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.
