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VST

Vistra Energy Corp

NYSE: VST · UTILITIES · UTILITIES - INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS

$153.79
-4.55% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$55.64B
P/E ratio
75.05
P/S ratio
3.14x
EPS (TTM)
$2.19
Dividend yield
0.58%
52W range
$122 – $219
Volume
4.3M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Vistra Energy Corp (VST) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$153.79
Consensus
$234.09
+52.21%
2030 Target
$1,330.38
+765.06%
DCF
$100.34
-54.39% MoS
11 analysts:
7 Buy1 Hold1 Sell

Management guidance

Vistra management has provided 2026 guidance of $23.25B revenue (31.08% growth from 2025's $17.74B) and expects continued strong growth trajectory through 2027-2028 driven by data center demand in ERCOT, with nearly 3.8 GW of 20-year nuclear PPAs locked in at investment-grade counterparties (Meta, AWS). CEO emphasizes multi-year visibility through contracted hedging and nuclear power purchase agreements extending to 2027-2028.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$2,222.35
$37.5B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$1,330.38
$37.5B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$891.96
$37.5B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$15.5B$19.4B$17.0B$23.3B$25.3B$28.5B$37.5B
Revenue growth—24.7%-12.4%31.1%8.9%12.5%14.3%
EPS$1.70$7.23$2.17$8.92$11.14$13.75$18.95
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$831.49$891.96$1,012.91$1,330.38

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ AI data center power demand acceleration in Texas ERCOT market (2027-2028 peak load growth)
+ Meta and AWS long-term nuclear power purchase agreements (20-year contracts providing revenue certainty)
+ Investment-grade credit ratings upgrade from S&P and Fitch (lower cost of capital, greater financing flexibility)
+ Retail electricity and commercial operations margin expansion
+ Nuclear production tax credit monetization and extended contract visibility
Key risks
- Commodity power price volatility despite hedging (wholesale market swings impact unhedged portions)
- Execution risk on data center power delivery infrastructure and nuclear PPA ramp-up
- Regulatory/political risk in Texas ERCOT market and federal energy policy changes
- High leverage (4.0x debt-to-equity) limits financial flexibility despite investment-grade upgrade
- Recession-driven reduction in data center capex spending or delayed power demand growth

Methodology

Vistra Energy Corp's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.