VSAT
ViaSat Inc
NASDAQ: VSAT · TECHNOLOGY · COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT
$73.07
-7.88% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$9.58B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
2.07x
EPS (TTM)
$-0.25
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$12 – $90
Volume
2.0M
ViaSat Inc (VSAT) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed VSAT price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$73.07
Today
Analyst consensus
$65.50
-10.36% · 12M
2030 Base
$-14.61
-119.99% future
NPV today
$-14.61
@ 14% WACC
9 analysts:
6 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided specific revenue guidance through 2030. CEO Mark Dankberg has focused on ViaSat-3 satellite constellation deployment (F3 launched April 2026) as the primary growth catalyst. The company targets margin expansion and profitability recovery as satellites come online, but no explicit revenue CAGR targets or dollar amounts have been disclosed.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
VSAT · ViaSat Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$-14.61
NPV today: $-14.61
Base case (2030)
$-14.61
NPV today: $-14.61
Bull case (2030)
$53.58
NPV today: $29.64
WallStSmart.com
VSAT financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.6B | $5.7B | $6.9B | $8.2B | $9.6B |
| Revenue growth | 2.7% | 14.1% | 21.6% | 19.3% | 17.1% |
| Net margin | — | -1.1% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| EPS | $1.03 | $-0.45 | $0.35 | $1.20 | $1.85 |
| Diluted shares | — | 138M | 139M | 140M | 141M |
| Net debt | — | $7.61B | $8.74B | $10.08B | $11.66B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $-14.20 | $-13.40 | $-13.45 | $-14.61 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.6B | $9.6B | $9.6B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 141M | 141M | 141M |
| Net debt | $11.66B | $11.66B | $11.66B |
| Implied P/E † | -8x | -8x | 29x |
| 2030 Price | $-14.61 | $-14.61 | $53.58 |
| NPV @ 14% | $-14.61 | $-14.61 | $29.64 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because VSAT is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $-14.61 base case
VSAT catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ ViaSat-3 constellation completion and full operational capacity (F1, F2, F3 deployed by mid-2026; potential F4 expansion)
+ Margin expansion as satellite capex cycle matures and recurring revenue from government, aviation, and broadband segments scales
+ Commercial broadband subscriber growth leveraging ViaSat-3 bandwidth capacity (higher speeds, lower latency than ViaSat-2)
+ Government communications market expansion (defense, tactical edge-to-cloud connectivity)
+ Aviation in-flight connectivity contracts (Jetstar, Boeing 737 MAX/777X/787 qualification)
+ Potential strategic review or M&A (Carronade Capital appointment suggests activist involvement)
Key risks
- Negative net income ($-338M TTM, -7.3% profit margin) despite $4.62B revenue — profitability timeline uncertain despite satellite deployment
- High capex burden ($1.03B in latest quarter) extending breakeven; free cash flow only $122M TTM despite $908M operating cash flow
- Starlink/Amazon Kuiper competitive pressure in broadband; satellite constellation race intensifying
- Supply chain delays in satellite manufacturing/launch services could push F4 deployment beyond current timeline
- Total debt of $7.52B limits financial flexibility; covenant risks if profitability doesn't materialize by 2027-2028
- Analyst price target dispersion extreme ($48-$100) suggests high uncertainty; consensus target $65.50 is 13% downside from current $75.27
Methodology · ViaSat Inc 2030 stock forecast model
ViaSat Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 9 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for VSAT by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($11.66B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.671) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
VSAT price target FAQ
What is the VSAT price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's ViaSat Inc 2030 base case is $-14.61 per share, with a bull case of $53.58 and bear case of $-14.61. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $-14.61.
How is the ViaSat Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The VSAT 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the VSAT price target account for dilution?
ViaSat Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 137M to 141M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on VSAT stock?
9 analysts cover VSAT with an average 12-month price target of $65.50. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.