VNOM
Viper Energy Ut
NASDAQ: VNOM · ENERGY · OIL & GAS MIDSTREAM
$47.51
-1.96% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$15.93B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
10.10x
EPS (TTM)
$-0.57
Dividend yield
5.29%
52W range
$34 – $50
Volume
1.7M
Viper Energy Ut (VNOM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed VNOM price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$47.51
Today
Analyst consensus
$57.76
+21.57% · 12M
2030 Base
$65.43
+37.72% future
NPV today
$49.58
@ 6% WACC
17 analysts:
14 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Viper Energy raised full-year 2026 oil production guidance by approximately 2.5% following the Riverbend acquisition and increased development activity. Management has not provided explicit revenue targets through 2030, but Q1 2026 results showed 102.4% YoY revenue growth to $496M, with the company benefiting from higher oil prices, increased production from Sitio merger integration, and royalty interest development in the Permian Basin.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
VNOM · Viper Energy Ut · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$12.98
NPV today: $9.84
Base case (2030)
$65.43
NPV today: $49.58
Bull case (2030)
$144.10
NPV today: $109.20
WallStSmart.com
VNOM financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $2.5B | $3.1B | $3.9B | $4.5B | $5.2B |
| Revenue growth | 56.6% | 75.0% | 27.0% | 23.0% | 17.0% | 15.0% |
| Net margin | — | 23.5% | 21.6% | 20.7% | 19.6% | 19.1% |
| EPS | $1.66 | $2.95 | $3.45 | $4.05 | $4.50 | $5.00 |
| Diluted shares | — | 195M | 196M | 196M | 197M | 198M |
| Net debt | — | $2.24B | $2.31B | $2.40B | $2.50B | $2.62B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $26.19 | $36.00 | $46.61 | $56.16 | $65.43 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.2B | $5.2B | $5.2B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 198M | 198M | 198M |
| Net debt | $2.62B | $2.62B | $2.62B |
| Implied P/E † | 3x | 13x | 29x |
| 2030 Price | $12.98 | $65.43 | $144.10 |
| NPV @ 6% | $9.84 | $49.58 | $109.20 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because VNOM is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $65.43 base case
VNOM catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Sitio Royalties merger integration driving production growth and reserve additions (107% increase in 2025)
+ Riverbend acquisition completed in Q1 2026 with 2.5% production uplift in guidance
+ Permian Basin development activity acceleration with higher oil price realization ($70-80 WTI range)
+ Divestiture of non-Permian assets ($617M in 2025) improving capital efficiency and focus
+ $1.75B share repurchase authorization supporting EPS accretion
+ Increased base dividend (15% raise to $1.52 annually) signaling confidence in cash generation
Key risks
- Crude oil price volatility — royalty-based model highly sensitive to WTI/Brent pricing; $10/barrel move significantly impacts cash flow
- Operator capex decisions — production growth depends on parent company (Diamondback Energy) and other operators' development spending in Permian
- Commodity price mean reversion — current projections assume sustained $70+ WTI; sharp pullback to $50-60 would compress growth rates
- Integration execution risk from Sitio merger and Riverbend acquisition
- Regulatory/environmental risk in Permian Basin operations
Methodology · Viper Energy Ut 2030 stock forecast model
Viper Energy Ut 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 17 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for VNOM by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($2.62B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 6% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.312) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
VNOM price target FAQ
What is the VNOM price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Viper Energy Ut 2030 base case is $65.43 per share, with a bull case of $144.10 and bear case of $12.98. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 6% WACC is $49.58.
How is the Viper Energy Ut 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The VNOM 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the VNOM price target account for dilution?
Viper Energy Ut is projected to grow diluted share count from 194M to 198M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on VNOM stock?
17 analysts cover VNOM with an average 12-month price target of $57.76. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.