WallStSmart
VLO

Valero Energy Corporation

NYSE: VLO · ENERGY · OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING

$251.30
+4.59% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$70.53B
P/E ratio
31.16
P/S ratio
0.61x
EPS (TTM)
$7.57
Dividend yield
1.93%
52W range
$109 – $258
Volume
3.8M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$251.30
Consensus
$208.28
-17.12%
2030 Target
$5,003.85
+1891.19%
DCF
$222.10
+8.19% MoS
19 analysts:
12 Buy7 Hold1 Sell

Management guidance

No specific management revenue guidance found in available data. CEO guidance on revenue targets for 2026-2030 was not disclosed in earnings calls, investor days, or press releases reviewed. Company focus is on operational optimization and refining margin capture rather than stated revenue growth targets.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$8,347.88
$124.8B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$5,003.85
$124.8B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$3,344.03
$124.8B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$144.8B$129.9B$122.7B$121.4B$117.8B$119.2B$122.1B$124.8B
Revenue growth—-10.3%-5.5%4.7%-3.0%1.2%2.4%2.2%
EPS$24.71$8.31$10.65$12.15$12.81$13.50$13.95$14.40
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$4,881.80$4,735.35$4,784.16$4,906.21$5,003.85

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Tight European diesel markets and strong refining margins from geopolitical tensions (Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruptions)
+ Pearl GTL outage driving premium pricing for high-cetane diesel; Valero expanding diesel/jet fuel production
+ California negotiating $100M+ payment to prevent Benicia refinery shutdown; maintains production capacity
+ Port Arthur refinery restart after March 2026 explosion; production recovery through 2H 2026
+ Elevated WTI crude oil prices ($85-95/bbl range); refining cracks benefiting margins through 2026-2027
+ Strong midstream integration similar to Phillips 66; potential for EBITDA growth initiatives
Key risks
- Refining margin compression if crude oil prices collapse or gasoline/diesel cracks narrow
- Geopolitical de-escalation (Iran conflict resolution) reducing oil price premium and tight product markets
- Regulatory risk: California emissions regulations and potential further refinery restrictions
- Port Arthur refinery downtime extended beyond 2H 2026 restart timeline; production delays
- Demand destruction from economic slowdown reducing transportation fuel consumption
- Energy transition reducing long-term refining demand; structural decline in petroleum refining capacity

Methodology

Valero Energy Corporation's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 19 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.