VIV
Telefonica Brasil SA ADR
NYSE: VIV · COMMUNICATION SERVICES · TELECOM SERVICES
$15.60
-2.66% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$20.47B
P/E ratio
16.86
P/S ratio
0.34x
EPS (TTM)
$0.76
Dividend yield
7.35%
52W range
$10 – $17
Volume
1.0M
Telefonica Brasil SA ADR (VIV) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed VIV price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$15.60
Today
Analyst consensus
$14.42
-7.56% · 12M
2030 Base
$72.37
+363.91% future
NPV today
$54.84
@ 6% WACC
11 analysts:
2 Buy5 Hold5 Sell
Management guidance
No specific revenue targets disclosed in recent earnings calls or SEC filings. Management emphasized shareholder returns (100% of 2026 net income distribution + R$1B buyback program) and operational focus on postpaid mobile, fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), and digital services growth. Guidance is qualitative (continued growth trajectory) rather than quantitative revenue targets through 2030.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
VIV · Telefonica Brasil SA ADR · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$72.37
NPV today: $54.84
Base case (2030)
$72.37
NPV today: $54.84
Bull case (2030)
$123.24
NPV today: $93.39
WallStSmart.com
VIV financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $58.4B | $68.4B | $71.9B | $75.3B | $78.6B | $81.7B |
| Revenue growth | 4.6% | 14.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% |
| Net margin | — | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% |
| EPS | $2.84 | $2.95 | $3.28 | $3.58 | $3.82 | $4.02 |
| Diluted shares | — | 1599M | 1601M | 1603M | 1604M | 1606M |
| Net debt | — | $692.16M | $-7.54B | $-16.17B | $-25.17B | $-34.52B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $42.32 | $49.62 | $57.07 | $64.67 | $72.37 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $81.7B | $81.7B | $81.7B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 1606M | 1606M | 1606M |
| Net debt | $-34.52B | $-34.52B | $-34.52B |
| Implied P/E † | 18x | 18x | 31x |
| 2030 Price | $72.37 | $72.37 | $123.24 |
| NPV @ 6% | $54.84 | $54.84 | $93.39 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because VIV is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $72.37 base case
VIV catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Full ownership of fiber unit FiBrasil (R$458.7M acquisition completed May 2026) — enables operational synergies and wholesale fiber margin expansion
+ Postpaid mobile subscriber growth acceleration and record mobile ARPU (Q1 2026: +7.4% revenue, +8.9% EBITDA) — sustainable pricing power in competitive market
+ Fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) expansion across Brazil — long-term revenue stream with high EBITDA margins and TAM of ~50M+ addressable households
+ Capital return program (R$1.25 per share in July 2026 + R$1B buyback) — demonstrates confidence in cash generation and supports share price
Key risks
- Brazilian macroeconomic volatility (currency depreciation, inflation, interest rates) — reported in BRL, FX headwinds on USD-converted revenue
- Regulatory risk (ANATEL pricing/mobile regulations, spectrum auctions) — telecom sector heavily regulated; pricing power constrained
- Intensifying competition in Brazilian mobile market (Claro, Oi) — margin compression on postpaid segment despite recent ARPU gains
- Saturated mobile subscriber base in Brazil (>100M postpaid lines) — limits growth to ARPU expansion and churn reduction, not volume growth
- Recent analyst downgrades (Goldman Sachs Sell initiated May 2026; UBS Buy→Sell downgrade March 2026) — consensus sentiment deteriorating
Methodology · Telefonica Brasil SA ADR 2030 stock forecast model
Telefonica Brasil SA ADR 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for VIV by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-34.52B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 6% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.312) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
VIV price target FAQ
What is the VIV price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Telefonica Brasil SA ADR 2030 base case is $72.37 per share, with a bull case of $123.24 and bear case of $72.37. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 6% WACC is $54.84.
How is the Telefonica Brasil SA ADR 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The VIV 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the VIV price target account for dilution?
Telefonica Brasil SA ADR is projected to grow diluted share count from 1598M to 1606M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on VIV stock?
11 analysts cover VIV with an average 12-month price target of $14.42. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.