USLM
United States Lime & Minerals Inc
NASDAQ: USLM · BASIC MATERIALS · BUILDING MATERIALS
$109.77
-2.37% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$3.11B
P/E ratio
23.87
P/S ratio
8.42x
EPS (TTM)
$4.54
Dividend yield
0.23%
52W range
$94 – $141
Volume
0.1M
United States Lime & Minerals Inc (USLM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed USLM price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$109.77
Today
Analyst consensus
$138.00
+25.72% · 12M
2030 Base
$128.13
+16.73% future
NPV today
$88.34
@ 8% WACC
1 analysts:
1 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Timothy Byrne expressed optimism about construction demand recovery for remainder of 2026 despite Q1 softness. Company is investing $65 million in new Texas kiln project expected to start operations summer 2026, targeting meaningful capacity expansion in quicklime production. Management has not provided specific revenue targets through 2030, but capacity additions suggest management expects sustained demand to absorb new production.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
USLM · United States Lime & Minerals Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$72.76
NPV today: $50.17
Base case (2030)
$128.13
NPV today: $88.34
Bull case (2030)
$238.87
NPV today: $164.69
WallStSmart.com
USLM financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.4B | $0.5B | $0.6B | $0.7B | $0.7B | $0.8B |
| Revenue growth | 17.3% | 36.8% | 16.7% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% |
| Net margin | — | 34.6% | 34.8% | 34.8% | 34.7% | 34.7% |
| EPS | $4.67 | $6.15 | $7.20 | $8.05 | $8.80 | $9.60 |
| Diluted shares | — | 29M | 29M | 29M | 29M | 29M |
| Net debt | — | $-77.55M | $-168.02M | $-269.14M | $-380.15M | $-501.49M |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $73.75 | $88.66 | $101.82 | $114.60 | $128.13 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.8B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 8.0x |
| Diluted shares | 29M | 29M | 29M |
| Net debt | $-501.49M | $-501.49M | $-501.49M |
| Implied P/E † | 8x | 13x | 25x |
| 2030 Price | $72.76 | $128.13 | $238.87 |
| NPV @ 8% | $50.17 | $88.34 | $164.69 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because USLM is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $128.13 base case
USLM catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Texas kiln startup (summer 2026) adds ~15-20% production capacity, enabling revenue growth acceleration H2 2026 and 2027
+ Construction spending recovery as residential/commercial activity rebounds from Q1 2026 weakness
+ Steel demand strength continuing — USLM noted increased steel customer demand in Q1 2026 earnings despite overall softness
+ Operating leverage from new kiln: higher fixed cost absorption drives margin expansion as volume recovers
+ Potential M&A or consolidation in fragmented lime/limestone industry
Key risks
- Cyclical downturn: Q1 2026 saw 3.7% revenue decline YoY due to softness in construction, oil/gas, and roofing — economic contraction could extend weakness beyond 2026
- Execution risk on Texas kiln startup; delays or cost overruns could pressure margins in 2027-2028
- Texas kiln capex ($65M) is material for $369M revenue company; if demand doesn't materialize, ROI pressure emerges
- Fuel and transportation cost inflation — Q1 2026 saw gross margin pressure despite volume declines, suggesting input cost sensitivity
- High insider ownership (62.59%) limits float and increases volatility; could limit institutional demand at current valuation (24.2x P/E)
Methodology · United States Lime & Minerals Inc 2030 stock forecast model
United States Lime & Minerals Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 1 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for USLM by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-501.49M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.701) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 8.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
USLM price target FAQ
What is the USLM price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's United States Lime & Minerals Inc 2030 base case is $128.13 per share, with a bull case of $238.87 and bear case of $72.76. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $88.34.
How is the United States Lime & Minerals Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The USLM 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the USLM price target account for dilution?
United States Lime & Minerals Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 29M to 29M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on USLM stock?
1 analysts cover USLM with an average 12-month price target of $138.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.