United Parcel Service Inc
NYSE: UPS · INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS
Updated 2026-04-29
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for UPS.
Current price exceeds what fundamentals support. Risk/reward skewed unfavorably.
UPS historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in UPS's own 5Y range.
UPS intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
UPS valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 17.25x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 1.03x
Is UPS overvalued in 2026?
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) currently trades at $106.61 per share with a market capitalization of $90,583,630,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock appears richly valued with a Smart Value Score of 47/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 17.3x, above its 5-year median of 16.0x. The PEG ratio of 1.59 points to a price that reasonably reflects expected earnings growth.
Looking at its own history, UPS is currently trading more expensive than 69% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 69th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates UPS's intrinsic value at $187.24 per share, against the current market price of $106.61. This implies a margin of safety of +35.91%. A meaningful cushion exists against model error, making this a reasonable risk-adjusted entry.
Financial quality is a concern. The Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weakening fundamentals that deserve closer scrutiny before the valuation case can be fully trusted.
Bottom line: UPS appears richly valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 47/100. At current levels the risk/reward is skewed against the buyer. A materially lower price or significant operational improvement would be needed to change the picture.
Frequently asked questions
Is UPS overvalued in 2026?
Based on a Smart Value Score of 47/100, UPS appears overvalued. Current price exceeds what fundamentals currently justify.
What is UPS's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates UPS's intrinsic value at $187.24 per share, versus the current price of $106.61. This produces a margin of safety of +35.91%.
What P/E ratio does UPS trade at?
UPS trades at a P/E of 17.3x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 16.0x.
Is UPS a buy based on valuation?
WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 47/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile skews cautious. Consider waiting for a better price or clearer operational improvement.
How does UPS's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, UPS currently sits in the 69th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is above its long-run median relative to where it has traded over the period.
What is UPS's Smart Value Score?
UPS's Smart Value Score is 47/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.