UMC
United Microelectronics
NYSE: UMC · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$21.63
+4.59% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$56.36B
P/E ratio
35.65
P/S ratio
0.23x
EPS (TTM)
$0.63
Dividend yield
2.15%
52W range
$7 – $24
Volume
14.5M
United Microelectronics (UMC) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed UMC price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$21.63
Today
Analyst consensus
$8.60
-60.24% · 12M
2030 Base
$603.98
+2692.33% future
NPV today
$373.32
@ 11% WACC
5 analysts:
0 Buy2 Hold5 Sell
Management guidance
UMC management guided 2026 capex at $1.5B USD, signaling confidence in demand recovery and capacity expansion. CEO has not provided explicit 2026-2030 revenue targets, but recent commentary emphasizes strong 14nm node demand, Intel foundry partnerships (US onshore via Polar collaboration), and specialty/mature process node leadership. Guidance implies normalized growth after 2025 trough (237.55B TWD, +2.26% YoY) driven by display driver IC demand, AI/automotive foundry work, and mature node pricing recovery.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
UMC · United Microelectronics · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$213.96
NPV today: $132.25
Base case (2030)
$603.98
NPV today: $373.32
Bull case (2030)
$1,189.02
NPV today: $734.94
WallStSmart.com
UMC financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $237.6B | $292.5B | $360.2B | $419.9B | $478.9B | $537.8B |
| Revenue growth | 2.3% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 16.6% | 14.1% | 12.3% |
| Net margin | — | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% |
| EPS | $0.54 | $5.85 | $7.42 | $8.88 | $10.15 | $11.48 |
| Diluted shares | — | 2568M | 2619M | 2669M | 2714M | 2758M |
| Net debt | — | $16.42B | $2.65B | $-13.40B | $-31.70B | $-52.26B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $335.36 | $411.59 | $476.98 | $541.07 | $603.98 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $537.8B | $537.8B | $537.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 2758M | 2758M | 2758M |
| Net debt | $-52.26B | $-52.26B | $-52.26B |
| Implied P/E † | 19x | 53x | 104x |
| 2030 Price | $213.96 | $603.98 | $1,189.02 |
| NPV @ 11% | $132.25 | $373.32 | $734.94 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because UMC is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $603.98 base case
UMC catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ 14nm eHV FinFET platform launch for display driver ICs (power -40%, area -35% vs 22nm) — near-term revenue driver for smartphone/wearable OEMs
+ Intel foundry partnership expansion (US onshore via Polar Semiconductor agreement announced Dec 2025) — potential multi-year, high-margin foundry orders 2026-2028
+ Mature node (28nm, 22nm) pricing recovery post-2025 trough — specialty logic and analog demand from automotive, IoT, industrial segments through 2027-2028
+ Share buyback program (>NT$600M executed YTD 2026) — signals management confidence; EPS accretion support
+ AI accelerator demand spillover — secondary beneficiary as TSMC/Samsung capacity constraints push specialty foundry to UMC (14-28nm nodes less competitive at leading edge)
Key risks
- Intense pricing pressure on mature nodes — commoditization of 28nm/22nm risking margin compression if utilization doesn't recover durably above 80%
- Wall Street consensus deeply negative (5 of 5 analysts Sell/Hold; avg price target $8.60 = -51% downside vs $17.56 current) — near-term stock volatility despite fundamentals improving
- TSMC/Samsung capacity headroom post-2026 — if leading-edge foundry capacity comes online, hyperscaler demand normalization could reduce spillover to UMC mature nodes
- Taiwan geopolitical risk — Strait tensions, US-China semiconductor restrictions could disrupt Taiwan fab operations and customer supply chain confidence
- Forex volatility (TWD strength in 2024-2025) — revenue in TWD but USD translation headwind if NT dollar remains elevated through 2026-2027
- Unproven US onshore capacity ramp — Polar/Intel partnership timelines uncertain; execution risk on high-cost US wafer production vs Taiwan cost advantage
Methodology · United Microelectronics 2030 stock forecast model
United Microelectronics 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 5 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (10% cumulative for UMC by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-52.26B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.187) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
UMC price target FAQ
What is the UMC price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's United Microelectronics 2030 base case is $603.98 per share, with a bull case of $1,189.02 and bear case of $213.96. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $373.32.
How is the United Microelectronics 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The UMC 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the UMC price target account for dilution?
United Microelectronics is projected to grow diluted share count from 2509M to 2758M by 2030 (a 10% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 10%.
What is the analyst consensus on UMC stock?
5 analysts cover UMC with an average 12-month price target of $8.60. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.