Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR
NYSE: UGP · ENERGY · OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING
Updated 2026-04-29
Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for UGP.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
UGP historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in UGP's own 5Y range.
UGP intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Standard discounted cash flow models produce unreliable output for unprofitable or near-breakeven companies. Revenue-based multiples such as P/S and EV/Sales, combined with the historical valuation position above, give a more reliable read for this stock.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
UGP valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 12.30x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 0.04x
Is UGP overvalued in 2026?
Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) currently trades at $5.78 per share with a market capitalization of $6,241,394,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 53/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 12.3x, above its 5-year median of 11.9x. The PEG ratio of 0.78 suggests earnings growth is outpacing the multiple, a classic sign of undervaluation.
Looking at its own history, UGP is currently trading more expensive than 64% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 64th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
A standard DCF model does not produce reliable output for UGP under current conditions. For unprofitable or near-breakeven companies, revenue-based multiples such as EV/Sales and historical P/S percentile are more informative than intrinsic value calculations.
Financial quality is a concern. The Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weakening fundamentals that deserve closer scrutiny before the valuation case can be fully trusted.
Bottom line: UGP trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 53/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is UGP overvalued in 2026?
Based on a Smart Value Score of 53/100, UGP is fairly valued. Price reasonably reflects current fundamentals with limited cushion in either direction.
What is UGP's fair value?
Standard DCF is unreliable for UGP due to its current profitability profile. Revenue-based approaches such as EV/Sales or historical P/S percentile are more informative for this stock.
What P/E ratio does UGP trade at?
UGP trades at a P/E of 12.3x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 11.9x.
Is UGP a buy based on valuation?
WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 53/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile is balanced. Best suited for investors with an existing thesis.
How does UGP's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, UGP currently sits in the 64th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is above its long-run median relative to where it has traded over the period.
What is UGP's Smart Value Score?
UGP's Smart Value Score is 53/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.