WallStSmart
TSCO

Tractor Supply Company

NASDAQ: TSCO · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · SPECIALTY RETAIL

$34.77
-2.30% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$18.30B
P/E ratio
17.13
P/S ratio
1.17x
EPS (TTM)
$2.03
Dividend yield
2.61%
52W range
$34 – $63
Volume
7.2M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$34.77
Consensus
$60.73
+74.66%
2030 Target
$460.11
+1223.30%
DCF
$41.06
-32.81% MoS
22 analysts:
15 Buy7 Hold1 Sell

Management guidance

Management provided FY2026 guidance of $16.66B revenue (7.3% growth) in earnings call. No specific guidance provided for 2027-2030 in available materials. CEO Hal Lawton emphasized margin pressures from tariffs and discretionary spending weakness, indicating cautious near-term outlook.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$766.85
$20.2B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$460.11
$20.2B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$306.74
$20.2B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$14.6B$14.9B$15.5B$16.7B$17.7B$18.6B$19.4B$20.2B
Revenue growth—2.2%4.3%7.3%6.1%5.1%4.5%4.0%
EPS$10.09$6.65$2.07$2.22$2.45$2.68$2.87$3.04
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$381.23$403.14$425.05$442.58$460.11

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Store expansion (20 planned Oregon locations, continued geographic penetration)
+ Loyalty program growth (40M members providing recurring revenue base)
+ E-commerce and omnichannel integration driving convenience and incremental sales
+ Recovery in discretionary rural spending and agricultural activity post-tariff uncertainty
+ Margin recovery as supply chain normalizes and operational efficiency improves
Key risks
- Discretionary spending pullback in consumer base (rural/farm demographics economically sensitive)
- Tariff headwinds pressuring margins and inventory costs through 2026-2027
- Comparable store sales stalling (0.3% in Q4 2025 vs historical 3-5% growth)
- Regulatory/compliance costs (CCPA fine signals privacy exposure)
- Competition from Amazon, Walmart, and regional retailers in rural markets
- Weather dependency affecting seasonal sales patterns

Methodology

Tractor Supply Company's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 22 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.