TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
NYSE: TPL · ENERGY · OIL & GAS E&P
$402.63
-4.16% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$26.14B
P/E ratio
52.05
P/S ratio
31.15x
EPS (TTM)
$7.28
Dividend yield
0.60%
52W range
$269 – $546
Volume
0.5M
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed TPL price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$402.63
Today
Analyst consensus
$445.00
+10.52% · 12M
2030 Base
$498.42
+23.79% future
NPV today
$346.58
@ 8% WACC
4 analysts:
2 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not issued specific multi-year revenue targets through 2030. CEO Tyler Glover noted ongoing industry uncertainty despite higher oil prices in Q1 2026. Company is actively pursuing AI data center and power infrastructure deals in West Texas (BOLT partnership with Bolt Data Energy), positioning water and surface assets as growth drivers alongside oil & gas royalties, with water/surface already representing ~50% of consolidated revenue.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
TPL · Texas Pacific Land Corporation · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$267.61
NPV today: $186.09
Base case (2030)
$498.42
NPV today: $346.58
Bull case (2030)
$960.04
NPV today: $667.58
WallStSmart.com
TPL financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.8B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.0B |
| Revenue growth | 13.1% | 29.7% | 17.9% | 17.5% | 16.2% | 13.4% |
| Net margin | — | 59.9% | 59.3% | 60.3% | 60.1% | 60.1% |
| EPS | $6.98 | $9.46 | $11.05 | $13.20 | $15.30 | $17.35 |
| Diluted shares | — | 69M | 69M | 69M | 69M | 69M |
| Net debt | — | $-361.56M | $-789.18M | $-1.29B | $-1.88B | $-2.54B |
| P/S multiple | — | 16.0x | 16.0x | 16.0x | 16.0x | 16.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $258.09 | $309.53 | $369.00 | $434.30 | $498.42 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.0B |
| P/S multiple | 8.0x | 16.0x | 32.0x |
| Diluted shares | 69M | 69M | 69M |
| Net debt | $-2.54B | $-2.54B | $-2.54B |
| Implied P/E † | 15x | 29x | 55x |
| 2030 Price | $267.61 | $498.42 | $960.04 |
| NPV @ 8% | $186.09 | $346.58 | $667.58 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because TPL is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $498.42 base case
TPL catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Expansion of AI data center and hyperscaler infrastructure deals in West Texas (BOLT Energy partnership and future similar agreements)
+ Water commercialization acceleration (desalination projects, volumetric royalties, operated water sales expansion)
+ Permian Basin production growth driving higher oil & gas royalty revenues if commodity prices remain elevated
+ Governance strengthening via Horizon Kinetics influence (Peter Doyle board appointment) enabling M&A and capital allocation optimization
+ Surface estate monetization through new leases, easements, and strategic partnerships
Key risks
- Long-term decarbonization pressure and energy transition reducing fossil fuel royalty streams post-2028
- Permian Basin regulatory tightening (water resources, environmental compliance) constraining volumes and margins
- Commodity price volatility (oil/gas) — royalty revenues highly sensitive to price swings; current estimates assume $70-80/bbl WTI
- AI data center deal execution risk — BOLT partnership and hyperscaler agreements remain early-stage; no guaranteed long-term revenue yet
- Valuation compression risk — P/E 55.2x is elevated; multiple compression could offset revenue growth upside
- Customer concentration in Permian Basin and dependency on upstream E&P operator capex cycles
Methodology · Texas Pacific Land Corporation 2030 stock forecast model
Texas Pacific Land Corporation 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 4 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for TPL by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-2.54B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.677) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 8.0x / base 16.0x / bull 32.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
TPL price target FAQ
What is the TPL price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Texas Pacific Land Corporation 2030 base case is $498.42 per share, with a bull case of $960.04 and bear case of $267.61. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $346.58.
How is the Texas Pacific Land Corporation 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The TPL 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the TPL price target account for dilution?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation is projected to grow diluted share count from 69M to 69M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on TPL stock?
4 analysts cover TPL with an average 12-month price target of $445.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.