TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp
NYSE: TFPM · BASIC MATERIALS · OTHER PRECIOUS METALS & MINING
$35.52
-7.01% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$6.02B
P/E ratio
19.31
P/S ratio
13.29x
EPS (TTM)
$1.51
Dividend yield
0.81%
52W range
$22 – $42
Volume
0.6M
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed TFPM price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$35.52
Today
Analyst consensus
$42.75
+20.35% · 12M
2030 Base
$38.14
+7.38% future
NPV today
$29.03
@ 6% WACC
12 analysts:
5 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Management affirmed 2026 guidance and 2030 growth targets during Q1 2026 earnings call but did not disclose specific revenue figures for 2030. CEO Sheldon Vanderkooy emphasized organic growth from strategic assets (Hope Bay, Northparkes E44, Johnson Camp) and M&A deployment from $1B+ liquidity. Company projects 9 consecutive years of record gold-equivalent ounce (GEO) production, signaling continued volume growth through decade-end.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
TFPM · Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$23.62
NPV today: $17.98
Base case (2030)
$38.14
NPV today: $29.03
Bull case (2030)
$72.02
NPV today: $54.82
WallStSmart.com
TFPM financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.4B | $0.6B | $0.7B | $0.8B | $0.9B | $1.0B |
| Revenue growth | 47.0% | 48.0% | 20.9% | 18.7% | 14.5% | 11.6% |
| Net margin | — | 63.1% | 63.2% | 64.0% | 65.7% | 66.1% |
| EPS | $1.01 | $1.68 | $2.05 | $2.48 | $2.86 | $3.20 |
| Diluted shares | — | 207M | 207M | 207M | 207M | 207M |
| Net debt | — | $-226.27M | $-356.36M | $-511.70M | $-686.45M | $-880.62M |
| P/S multiple | — | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $19.73 | $24.43 | $29.58 | $33.82 | $38.14 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.0B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 7.0x | 14.0x |
| Diluted shares | 207M | 207M | 207M |
| Net debt | $-880.62M | $-880.62M | $-880.62M |
| Implied P/E † | 7x | 12x | 23x |
| 2030 Price | $23.62 | $38.14 | $72.02 |
| NPV @ 6% | $17.98 | $29.03 | $54.82 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because TFPM is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $38.14 base case
TFPM catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Hope Bay mine ramp-up (Kivalliq region, high-grade gold) — major production inflection 2027-2028
+ Northparkes E44 deposit unlock with Evolution Mining (gold-dominant, 2026-2027 development)
+ Gunnison copper royalty (3% GRR) diversifies beyond precious metals, offsets stream step-downs
+ Precious metals price appreciation (gold +25% YTD 2026, silver +18%) — directly boosts royalty/stream cash flow
+ M&A deployment of $1B+ available capital into higher-yielding assets or new streams
+ Johnson Camp and Tres Quebradas production ramp (early-stage 2025-2026 production now scaling)
Key risks
- Operator counterparty risk — reliant on third-party mine operators (Evolution, Antamina, others); operational delays/disputes impact cash flow
- Precious metals price volatility — 30-40% of revenue exposed to gold/silver spot prices; major downturn could compress margins materially
- Stream/royalty step-downs — several contracts have declining payout rates as mines mature; organic growth requires new acquisitions to offset
- Integration execution risk — recent Gunnison acquisition and larger M&A depend on deal synergies materializing
- Regulatory/permitting risk — development assets (Hope Bay, E44) subject to Canadian/territorial permitting delays
- Currency headwind — CAD-denominated expenses, USD revenue; CAD appreciation compresses USD-equivalent margins
Methodology · Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for TFPM by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-880.62M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 6% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.296) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 7.0x / bull 14.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
TFPM price target FAQ
What is the TFPM price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp 2030 base case is $38.14 per share, with a bull case of $72.02 and bear case of $23.62. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 6% WACC is $29.03.
How is the Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The TFPM 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the TFPM price target account for dilution?
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 207M to 207M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on TFPM stock?
12 analysts cover TFPM with an average 12-month price target of $42.75. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.