TDG
Transdigm Group Incorporated
NYSE: TDG · INDUSTRIALS · AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
$1,198.67
+0.87% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$69.75B
P/E ratio
38.91
P/S ratio
7.34x
EPS (TTM)
$32.05
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$1,124 – $1,512
Volume
0.4M
Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed TDG price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$1,198.67
Today
Analyst consensus
$1,532.00
+27.81% · 12M
2030 Base
$846.16
-29.41% future
NPV today
$561.58
@ 9% WACC
25 analysts:
10 Buy9 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
TransDigm provided FY2026 net sales guidance of $10,300M–$10,420M (midpoint $10,360M), representing 17.3% growth from FY2025's $8,830M. Management has signaled continued M&A-driven growth and organic expansion driven by aerospace recovery and defense spending tailwinds through 2027+, though specific long-term revenue targets beyond FY2026 have not been publicly disclosed.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
TDG · Transdigm Group Incorporated · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$224.43
NPV today: $148.95
Base case (2030)
$846.16
NPV today: $561.58
Bull case (2030)
$1,778.75
NPV today: $1,180.53
WallStSmart.com
TDG financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.8B | $10.4B | $11.8B | $13.6B | $15.5B | $17.6B |
| Revenue growth | 11.2% | 17.3% | 14.4% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| Net margin | — | 21.3% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| EPS | $8.23 | $39.33 | $46.50 | $54.20 | $62.40 | $71.00 |
| Diluted shares | — | 56M | 56M | 56M | 56M | 57M |
| Net debt | — | $26.65B | $25.81B | $24.83B | $23.72B | $22.47B |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $263.59 | $384.15 | $526.37 | $676.75 | $846.16 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.6B | $17.6B | $17.6B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 57M | 57M | 57M |
| Net debt | $22.47B | $22.47B | $22.47B |
| Implied P/E † | 3x | 12x | 25x |
| 2030 Price | $224.43 | $846.16 | $1,778.75 |
| NPV @ 9% | $148.95 | $561.58 | $1,180.53 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because TDG is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $846.16 base case
TDG catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Aerospace production recovery: OEM build rates (Boeing, Airbus) ramping post-2024 supply chain normalization; commercial aircraft orders at 40-year highs
+ Defense spending: U.S. defense budget increases (2026–2030 CAGR ~3–4%); international military modernization (NATO expansion, Pacific deterrence)
+ M&A accretion: TransDigm completed Jet Parts Engineering & Victor Sierra acquisitions in April 2026; active pipeline with proven 15%+ accretion track record
+ Aftermarket dominance: Proprietary engineering + high switching costs drive 60%+ recurring aftermarket revenue with 50%+ margins; inelastic to economic cycles
+ Hypersonic/Next-Gen platforms: F-35, B-21, NGAs, NGAD ramp production 2027–2030; TransDigm is Tier-1 supplier to prime contractors
Key risks
- Valuation cliff: 37.5x P/E current (vs. 25x forward), leaves little margin for error if growth decelerates below 12%; rate environment sensitivity ($95B enterprise value)
- Aerospace cyclicality: Commercial aviation downturn or OEM production cuts (e.g., Boeing 737 MAX certification delays, labor actions) could pressure 2027–2028 margins
- Integration execution: M&A strategy requires flawless operational integration; failed synergy realization could dilute EPS and miss guidance
- Competitive pressure: Increasing competition from consolidating tier-2s (HEICO, AerComm) and Chinese manufacturers in commodity segments
- Insider selling: COO Joel Reiss sold ~$4.5M of stock in May 2026 (3rd transaction in 3 months); weak signal on near-term conviction
Methodology · Transdigm Group Incorporated 2030 stock forecast model
Transdigm Group Incorporated 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 25 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for TDG by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($22.47B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.879) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
TDG price target FAQ
What is the TDG price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Transdigm Group Incorporated 2030 base case is $846.16 per share, with a bull case of $1,778.75 and bear case of $224.43. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $561.58.
How is the Transdigm Group Incorporated 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The TDG 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the TDG price target account for dilution?
Transdigm Group Incorporated is projected to grow diluted share count from 56M to 57M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on TDG stock?
25 analysts cover TDG with an average 12-month price target of $1,532.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.