TARS
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc
NASDAQ: TARS · HEALTHCARE · BIOTECHNOLOGY
$59.65
-1.76% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$2.67B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
4.98x
EPS (TTM)
$-1.11
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$39 – $85
Volume
0.6M
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc (TARS) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed TARS price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$59.65
Today
Analyst consensus
$90.67
+52.00% · 12M
2030 Base
$40.24
-32.54% future
NPV today
$28.96
@ 7% WACC
9 analysts:
6 Buy2 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management has provided 2026 net product sales guidance of $670M-$700M (midpoint $685M), representing 52% growth from 2025's $451.4M. This guidance is based on XDEMVY's strong Q1 2026 performance ($145.4M in sales, +85% YoY) and reflects confidence in continued market penetration for Demodex blepharitis treatment. CEO has not provided explicit guidance beyond 2026, but pipeline expansion with TP-04 (ocular rosacea Phase 2) and TP-05 (Lyme disease prevention Phase 2) with top-line data expected in 2027 suggests multi-product revenue diversification entering 2028-2030.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
TARS · Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$-30.42
NPV today: $-30.42
Base case (2030)
$40.24
NPV today: $28.96
Bull case (2030)
$110.90
NPV today: $79.80
WallStSmart.com
TARS financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | $0.7B | $0.9B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Revenue growth | 146.7% | 51.8% | 34.3% | 27.7% | 18.3% | 14.0% |
| Net margin | — | 1.0% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 15.4% | 16.8% |
| EPS | $-1.62 | $0.15 | $2.10 | $3.65 | $4.80 | $5.95 |
| Diluted shares | — | 43M | 44M | 44M | 45M | 45M |
| Net debt | — | $414.86M | $874.86M | $1.46B | $2.16B | $2.95B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $37.74 | $43.00 | $46.67 | $45.18 | $40.24 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 45M | 45M | 45M |
| Net debt | $2.95B | $2.95B | $2.95B |
| Implied P/E † | -5x | 7x | 19x |
| 2030 Price | $-30.42 | $40.24 | $110.90 |
| NPV @ 7% | $-30.42 | $28.96 | $79.80 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because TARS is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $40.24 base case
TARS catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ XDEMVY continued market expansion: 25M patient addressable market for Demodex blepharitis with strong Q1 2026 uptake (+85% YoY); direct-to-consumer campaign (John Cena partnership) driving awareness
+ Pipeline advancement: TP-05 (lotilaner) Phase 2 for Lyme disease prevention entered 2026 with data expected 2027; TP-04 Phase 2 for ocular rosacea with 2027 readout; both represent significant expansion beyond single-product dependency
+ International expansion: XDEMVY approved in China (triggered $15M milestone payment Q1 2026); additional geographic approvals in EU and other regions provide revenue diversification and de-risking
+ Profitability inflection: Q1 2026 net loss of $7.0M vs $25.1M prior year (-72%); improving operating leverage on 56.5% guidance growth suggests path to breakeven 2026 or 2027
+ SG&A leverage: with gross margin at 94.2% and revenue growing 50%+, SG&A as % of sales declining significantly, supporting sharp EPS improvement trajectory
Key risks
- Single-product concentration: XDEMVY represents ~97% of 2026 projected revenue ($670-700M); any pricing pressure, competitive entry (biosimilars, generics), or demand softening in Demodex market poses material revenue risk
- Pipeline execution: TP-04 and TP-05 are Phase 2; clinical/regulatory failure would delay revenue diversification and force reliance on XDEMVY indefinitely
- Reimbursement/payer pressure: pricing sustainability challenged by PBM negotiations; XDEMVY list price ~$3,500/month; payer pushback could compress margins or volume
- Competitive landscape: ophthalmic market becoming more competitive; new Demodex treatments or alternative therapies (oral antibiotics, topical steroids) could cannibalize XDEMVY market share
- Market saturation: Demodex blepharitis TAM ~25M patients; penetration rate in early innings, but ceiling exists on total addressable revenue from this indication alone (~$2-3B peak)
Methodology · Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 9 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (4% cumulative for TARS by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($2.95B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 7% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.526) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
TARS price target FAQ
What is the TARS price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 base case is $40.24 per share, with a bull case of $110.90 and bear case of $-30.42. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 7% WACC is $28.96.
How is the Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The TARS 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the TARS price target account for dilution?
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 43M to 45M by 2030 (a 4% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 4%.
What is the analyst consensus on TARS stock?
9 analysts cover TARS with an average 12-month price target of $90.67. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.