TAC
TransAlta Corp
NYSE: TAC · UTILITIES · UTILITIES - INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS
$12.80
-2.16% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$4.23B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
1.91x
EPS (TTM)
$-0.54
Dividend yield
1.94%
52W range
$10 – $18
Volume
1.4M
TransAlta Corp (TAC) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed TAC price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$12.80
Today
Analyst consensus
$21.33
+66.64% · 12M
2030 Base
$4.25
-66.80% future
NPV today
$3.12
@ 7% WACC
11 analysts:
7 Buy1 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
TransAlta reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of C$950M-C$1,050M (vs. TTM revenue of C$2.21B). Management emphasized disciplined growth through M&A and asset optimization, with strategic focus on data center expansion (1 GW potential at Keephills site via MOU with CPP/Brookfield) and Centralia coal-to-gas conversion. CEO Joel Hunter (new in transition) highlighted hedging strategy and contracted portfolio supporting performance despite near-term pricing headwinds in Alberta.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysismedium confidence
TAC · TransAlta Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$4.25
NPV today: $3.12
Base case (2030)
$4.25
NPV today: $3.12
Bull case (2030)
$15.47
NPV today: $11.37
WallStSmart.com
TAC financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.4B | $2.1B | $2.4B | $2.7B | $3.0B | $3.4B |
| Revenue growth | -15.5% | -11.2% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.8% |
| Net margin | — | 3.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% |
| EPS | $0.20 | $0.25 | $0.48 | $0.68 | $0.82 | $0.94 |
| Diluted shares | — | 299M | 300M | 300M | 301M | 301M |
| Net debt | — | $3.28B | $3.03B | $2.76B | $2.44B | $2.10B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $-3.81 | $-2.18 | $-0.15 | $2.01 | $4.25 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.4B | $3.4B | $3.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 301M | 301M | 301M |
| Net debt | $2.10B | $2.10B | $2.10B |
| Implied P/E † | 5x | 5x | 17x |
| 2030 Price | $4.25 | $4.25 | $15.47 |
| NPV @ 7% | $3.12 | $3.12 | $11.37 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because TAC is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $4.25 base case
TAC catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Centralia coal-to-gas conversion completion (700 MW long-term contract signed Dec 2025)
+ Data center capacity expansion at Keephills (1 GW potential, backed by CPP Investments and Brookfield partnership)
+ Contracted portfolio ramp (310 MW Ontario gas acquisition Nov 2025, improving revenue stability and visibility)
+ Alberta power pricing recovery (currently depressed; normalization would drive significant margin uplift)
Key risks
- Structural revenue decline: TTM revenue down 16.7% YoY to C$2.21B; FY2025 revenue down 15.5% to C$2.41B; FY2026 analyst consensus projects further 10.8% decline to C$2.15B
- Near-term Alberta power pricing headwinds (Q1 2026 revenue C$565M, down 25.5% QoQ; power generation fell 20% to 5,444 GWh)
- Operating leverage negative: negative profit margin (-7.7%), negative ROE (-11.16%), negative ROIC (-3.49%)
- Data center growth uncertain: partnership structure with CPP/Brookfield unclear; 1 GW timeline and revenue contribution not yet quantified
- Coal-to-gas transition execution risk: asset conversion requires capex, regulatory approval, and customer commitment
- High leverage: Debt/Equity 3.17x, LT Debt/Eq 2.51x; limits financial flexibility for aggressive growth capex
Methodology · TransAlta Corp 2030 stock forecast model
TransAlta Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-5% cumulative for TAC by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($2.10B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 7% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.429) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
TAC price target FAQ
What is the TAC price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's TransAlta Corp 2030 base case is $4.25 per share, with a bull case of $15.47 and bear case of $4.25. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 7% WACC is $3.12.
How is the TransAlta Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The TAC 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the TAC price target account for dilution?
TransAlta Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 316M to 301M by 2030 (a -5% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately -5%.
What is the analyst consensus on TAC stock?
11 analysts cover TAC with an average 12-month price target of $21.33. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.