SWX
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc
NYSE: SWX · UTILITIES · UTILITIES - REGULATED GAS
$89.13
+1.78% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$6.44B
P/E ratio
26.97
P/S ratio
3.62x
EPS (TTM)
$3.30
Dividend yield
2.82%
52W range
$70 – $94
Volume
0.5M
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed SWX price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$89.13
Today
Analyst consensus
$100.00
+12.20% · 12M
2030 Base
$-15.63
-117.54% future
NPV today
$-15.63
@ 8% WACC
10 analysts:
7 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Southwest Gas reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.17-$4.32 and expects $4.40-$4.60 by 2027. Management has communicated a 14% annual growth target through 2030 and announced a $6.3B five-year (2026-2030) capital expenditure plan supporting infrastructure expansion, particularly the Great Basin pipeline project with strong shipper commitments.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
SWX · Southwest Gas Holdings Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$-15.63
NPV today: $-15.63
Base case (2030)
$-15.63
NPV today: $-15.63
Bull case (2030)
$76.90
NPV today: $54.16
WallStSmart.com
SWX financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.4B | $2.7B | $3.0B | $3.4B |
| Revenue growth | -62.0% | 7.2% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 12.0% |
| Net margin | — | 14.9% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 15.6% |
| EPS | $6.57 | $4.28 | $4.88 | $5.58 | $6.36 | $7.24 |
| Diluted shares | — | 73M | 73M | 73M | 73M | 73M |
| Net debt | — | $3.66B | $3.84B | $4.04B | $4.26B | $4.51B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $-21.81 | $-20.27 | $-18.72 | $-17.15 | $-15.63 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.4B | $3.4B | $3.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 3.0x |
| Diluted shares | 73M | 73M | 73M |
| Net debt | $4.51B | $4.51B | $4.51B |
| Implied P/E † | -2x | -2x | 11x |
| 2030 Price | $-15.63 | $-15.63 | $76.90 |
| NPV @ 8% | $-15.63 | $-15.63 | $54.16 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because SWX is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $-15.63 base case
SWX catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Arizona and Nevada rate case decisions (~$172M incremental revenue requested) expected through 2026-2027
+ Great Basin pipeline expansion 2028 commissioning with oversubscribed open season indicating strong demand
+ Customer growth acceleration in core Southwest markets (Nevada/Arizona/California)
+ Capital investment cycle ($6.3B over 5 years) driving regulated asset base expansion and ROE improvement
+ Dividend growth continuation (4% raise announced; 56-year history supports further increases)
Key risks
- Q1 2026 earnings miss (EPS -6.4%, revenue -15.4%) suggests execution/timing volatility in rate case decisions
- California rate case delays creating earnings volatility despite underlying fundamentals
- Regulatory risk: unfavorable outcomes in Arizona/Nevada rate cases could reduce EPS accretion by 5-10%
- Premium valuation (27.0x P/E vs. utility sector 14-18x) leaves limited margin for error; DCF fair value estimated ~45% below current price by some analysts
- Inflation risk on capex costs; regulatory lag could compress margins if capital spending outpaces rate recovery
Methodology · Southwest Gas Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 10 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for SWX by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($4.51B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.616) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 3.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
SWX price target FAQ
What is the SWX price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Southwest Gas Holdings Inc 2030 base case is $-15.63 per share, with a bull case of $76.90 and bear case of $-15.63. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $-15.63.
How is the Southwest Gas Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The SWX 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the SWX price target account for dilution?
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 72M to 73M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on SWX stock?
10 analysts cover SWX with an average 12-month price target of $100.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.