WallStSmart
SU

Suncor Energy Inc

NYSE: SU · ENERGY · OIL & GAS INTEGRATED

$68.46
+2.07% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$81.52B
P/E ratio
19.28
P/S ratio
1.67x
EPS (TTM)
$3.55
Dividend yield
3.44%
52W range
$32 – $69
Volume
5.0M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Suncor Energy Inc (SU) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$68.46
Consensus
$74.00
+8.09%
2030 Target
$568.29
+730.11%
DCF
$76.46
+26.84% MoS
2 analysts:
1 Buy7 Hold2 Sell

Management guidance

At 2026 Investor Day (March 2026), Suncor outlined a Three-Year Improvement Plan (2026-2028) targeting 100,000 BPD production growth, reducing WTI breakeven to US$38/bbl, and $2B increase in free funds flow. CEO Rich Kruger completed initial turnaround plan early and is accelerating capital returns with $4B annual buybacks through 2027. No explicit total revenue target disclosed, but production growth and cost reduction framework provided.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$944.94
$56.2B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$568.29
$56.2B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$376.66
$56.2B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$49.1B$50.7B$48.9B$48.4B$50.2B$52.8B$54.6B$56.2B
Revenue growth—3.3%-3.5%-1.1%3.7%5.2%3.4%2.9%
EPS$5.10$5.41$4.17$3.95$4.54$5.10$5.45$5.70
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$488.99$508.82$535.25$548.46$568.29

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Three-Year Improvement Plan (2026-2028): 100,000 BPD production increase via Fort Hills, Firebag, West White Rose projects
+ WTI breakeven cost reduction to US$38/bbl by 2028 (from current levels), improving margins at lower oil prices
+ $4B annual share buyback program through 2027 and 118.7M shares authorized for repurchase, supporting EPS accretion
+ Firebag thermal expansion and bitumen reserves update targeting long-life, low-decline asset base
+ Geopolitical supply concerns (Venezuela, Iran tensions) supporting oil prices and company valuation
+ Improved operational reliability and refining throughput delivering record production in 2025
Key risks
- Oil price volatility: Suncor's revenue highly correlated to WTI/Brent prices; $10/bbl decline impacts annual revenue by ~$3-4B
- Energy transition and carbon policy: Long-term ESG/climate pressures on oil sands investments; stranded asset risk post-2035
- Execution risk on Three-Year Plan: Production targets and cost reductions depend on project delivery and capital discipline
- Canadian regulatory and environmental compliance costs increasing; potential restrictions on new oil sands development
- Refining margin compression: Downstream exposure limits upside if refined product spreads narrow
- Capital intensity: Large capex required to grow production; balance sheet leverage risk if commodity prices decline

Methodology

Suncor Energy Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 2 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.