SU
Suncor Energy Inc
NYSE: SU · ENERGY · OIL & GAS INTEGRATED
$61.60
-0.32% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$77.11B
P/E ratio
17.14
P/S ratio
1.51x
EPS (TTM)
$3.81
Dividend yield
3.67%
52W range
$35 – $70
Volume
3.9M
Suncor Energy Inc (SU) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed SU price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$61.60
Today
Analyst consensus
$72.00
+16.88% · 12M
2030 Base
$85.02
+38.02% future
NPV today
$60.14
@ 8% WACC
20 analysts:
14 Buy1 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Suncor has not publicly committed to specific revenue targets through 2030. However, management outlined 2028 production and operational targets during Q1 2026 Investor Day (May 2026), indicating confidence in sustained upstream output growth. The company targets record refining capacity utilization and expanded downstream margins, but no explicit revenue CAGR or dollar target was disclosed for 2026-2030.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
SU · Suncor Energy Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$85.02
NPV today: $60.14
Base case (2030)
$85.02
NPV today: $60.14
Bull case (2030)
$141.26
NPV today: $99.92
WallStSmart.com
SU financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.9B | $54.2B | $57.1B | $60.8B | $63.9B | $66.8B |
| Revenue growth | -3.5% | 10.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% |
| Net margin | — | 14.5% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 13.7% |
| EPS | $4.60 | $6.65 | $6.80 | $7.20 | $7.45 | $7.68 |
| Diluted shares | — | 1183M | 1184M | 1185M | 1187M | 1188M |
| Net debt | — | $-6.12B | $-12.57B | $-19.43B | $-26.65B | $-34.19B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $50.98 | $58.83 | $67.68 | $76.31 | $85.02 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $66.8B | $66.8B | $66.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 1188M | 1188M | 1188M |
| Net debt | $-34.19B | $-34.19B | $-34.19B |
| Implied P/E † | 11x | 11x | 18x |
| 2030 Price | $85.02 | $85.02 | $141.26 |
| NPV @ 8% | $60.14 | $60.14 | $99.92 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because SU is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $85.02 base case
SU catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Continued high oil price environment (Brent >$70/bbl supports revenue visibility through 2027-2028)
+ Record Q1 2026 upstream production and refining margins; downstream jet fuel export premiums (geopolitical tailwind)
+ Aggressive shareholder return program ($3.62B buybacks 2025-2026, 5% dividend growth) supports per-share earnings accretion
+ Integration of oil sands, upgrading, refining, and marketing provides earnings stability across commodity cycles
+ 2028 production milestones announced; potential for M&A in consolidating Canadian energy sector ($38B wave in 2026)
Key risks
- Oil price volatility: revenue is directly exposed to crude prices; WTI/Brent weakness below $60/bbl compresses margins and revenue
- Energy transition headwinds: rising carbon costs, ESG divestment pressure, and long-term demand uncertainty for fossil fuels constrain growth ceiling
- Geopolitical shocks: jet fuel export premiums (current tailwind) depend on Suez Canal closure; normalization would reduce refining upside
- Regulatory/climate policy: Canadian carbon tax escalation and potential emissions constraints could increase operating costs and limit production expansion
- Competitive intensity: consolidation in Canadian oil & gas (CVE, CNQ) plus global supermajor capex (Shell, BP, TTE) may pressure realized prices
Methodology · Suncor Energy Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Suncor Energy Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 20 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for SU by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-34.19B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.592) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
SU price target FAQ
What is the SU price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Suncor Energy Inc 2030 base case is $85.02 per share, with a bull case of $141.26 and bear case of $85.02. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $60.14.
How is the Suncor Energy Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The SU 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the SU price target account for dilution?
Suncor Energy Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 1181M to 1188M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on SU stock?
20 analysts cover SU with an average 12-month price target of $72.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.