STX
Seagate Technology PLC
NASDAQ: STX · TECHNOLOGY · COMPUTER HARDWARE
$931.04
+7.25% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$209.65B
P/E ratio
87.75
P/S ratio
18.87x
EPS (TTM)
$10.56
Dividend yield
0.32%
52W range
$123 – $967
Volume
4.0M
Seagate Technology PLC (STX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed STX price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$931.04
Today
Analyst consensus
$734.00
-21.16% · 12M
2030 Base
$1,745.18
+87.44% future
NPV today
$938.63
@ 14% WACC
25 analysts:
20 Buy4 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Dave Mosley indicated Seagate is sold out through 2027 and targeting high exabyte growth driven by AI data center demand. Management stated it will focus on technology transitions and manufacturing efficiency rather than new factory builds to achieve high-growth targets. Specific revenue dollar targets were not provided in public guidance, but backlog visibility extends through FY2027 with strong customer commitments from hyperscalers.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
STX · Seagate Technology PLC · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$882.53
NPV today: $474.66
Base case (2030)
$1,745.18
NPV today: $938.63
Bull case (2030)
$3,254.82
NPV today: $1,750.58
WallStSmart.com
STX financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.1B | $16.9B | $24.3B | $32.4B | $40.5B | $48.6B |
| Revenue growth | 38.9% | 85.1% | 44.1% | 33.3% | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Net margin | — | 30.0% | 35.3% | 37.5% | 38.2% | 38.3% |
| EPS | $5.72 | $22.50 | $38.20 | $54.00 | $68.80 | $82.60 |
| Diluted shares | — | 224M | 225M | 225M | 225M | 225M |
| Net debt | — | $-464.17M | $-1.13B | $-2.03B | $-3.14B | $-4.48B |
| P/S multiple | — | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $602.64 | $870.28 | $1,161.51 | $1,453.14 | $1,745.18 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.6B | $48.6B | $48.6B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 8.0x | 15.0x |
| Diluted shares | 225M | 225M | 225M |
| Net debt | $-4.48B | $-4.48B | $-4.48B |
| Implied P/E † | 11x | 21x | 39x |
| 2030 Price | $882.53 | $1,745.18 | $3,254.82 |
| NPV @ 14% | $474.66 | $938.63 | $1,750.58 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because STX is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $1,745.18 base case
STX catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AI data center capex acceleration from Meta, Microsoft, Google, and hyperscalers driving exabyte growth and HDD/NAND demand through 2028
+ Mozaic HAMR technology ramp enabling higher-capacity drives at lower cost, addressing capacity constraints and expanding TAM
+ Supply constraints from Samsung labor strike and limited competitor capacity providing pricing power and market share gains for Seagate
+ Backlog sold out through 2027 with strong customer commitments providing near-certain revenue visibility
+ Gross margin expansion from technology transitions and mix shift toward high-capacity AI storage drives
Key risks
- CEO cautioned that building new factories would take too long, implying capacity ceiling may constrain revenue upside in 2028-2029
- Valuation compression if AI capex cycle decelerates faster than expected or hyperscalers shift to alternative storage architectures
- Competition from Western Digital and Micron if they successfully ramp HAMR or competing technologies
- Macro slowdown or recession reducing hyperscaler capex below current guidance
- Supply chain disruptions impacting wafer availability or component sourcing
Methodology · Seagate Technology PLC 2030 stock forecast model
Seagate Technology PLC 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 25 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-0% cumulative for STX by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-4.48B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 8.0x / bull 15.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
STX price target FAQ
What is the STX price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Seagate Technology PLC 2030 base case is $1,745.18 per share, with a bull case of $3,254.82 and bear case of $882.53. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $938.63.
How is the Seagate Technology PLC 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The STX 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the STX price target account for dilution?
Seagate Technology PLC is projected to grow diluted share count from 226M to 225M by 2030 (a -0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately -0%.
What is the analyst consensus on STX stock?
25 analysts cover STX with an average 12-month price target of $734.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.