STEP
Stepstone Group Inc
NASDAQ: STEP · FINANCIAL SERVICES · ASSET MANAGEMENT
$55.74
-3.17% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$5.59B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
2.81x
EPS (TTM)
$-6.78
Dividend yield
2.54%
52W range
$41 – $77
Volume
1.1M
Stepstone Group Inc (STEP) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed STEP price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$55.74
Today
Analyst consensus
$71.75
+28.72% · 12M
2030 Base
$66.53
+19.36% future
NPV today
$39.78
@ 12% WACC
10 analysts:
7 Buy2 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
StepStone has not issued specific revenue targets through 2030. Most recent guidance (Q4 FY2026, May 20, 2026) focused on record fee-related earnings and $233.3B in AUM with $885B total capital responsibility. Management emphasizes organic growth via new strategies (Evergreen, Credit Opportunities Fund II at $1.58B commitments), new verticals (U.S. Defined Contribution business launch), and international expansion, but no explicit revenue CAGR or terminal-year target disclosed.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
STEP · Stepstone Group Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$66.53
NPV today: $39.78
Base case (2030)
$66.53
NPV today: $39.78
Bull case (2030)
$116.70
NPV today: $69.78
WallStSmart.com
STEP financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.0B | $2.6B | $3.2B | $3.8B | $4.5B |
| Revenue growth | 69.7% | 20.3% | 23.3% | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| Net margin | — | 13.9% | 14.8% | 15.8% | 16.2% |
| EPS | $2.16 | $4.25 | $5.45 | $6.85 | $8.15 |
| Diluted shares | — | 84M | 86M | 88M | 90M |
| Net debt | — | $-428.18M | $-715.87M | $-1.06B | $-1.47B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $35.66 | $45.14 | $55.40 | $66.53 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.5B | $4.5B | $4.5B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 90M | 90M | 90M |
| Net debt | $-1.47B | $-1.47B | $-1.47B |
| Implied P/E † | 8x | 8x | 14x |
| 2030 Price | $66.53 | $66.53 | $116.70 |
| NPV @ 12% | $39.78 | $39.78 | $69.78 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because STEP is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $66.53 base case
STEP catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AUM growth acceleration: $233.3B in AUM (up from $170B+ prior year) provides fee revenue engine; new fund closes (Credit Opportunities II $1.58B, Structured Solutions $3.1B) drive future revenues
+ Fee-related earnings inflection: Q4 FY2026 showed record fee earnings despite weaker performance fees; subscription-based fee model more stable and recurring than volatile performance fees
+ New business verticals: U.S. Defined Contribution business launch (March 2026), Evergreen strategies launch (May 2026), secondaries platform expansion—each represents incremental revenue pools and market share capture
+ Capital efficiency: $100M buyback authorization (March 2026) suggests management confidence in undervaluation; dividend policy ($0.83 per share in Q4) indicates strong cash generation
Key risks
- Profitability cliff: TTM net income margin is -30.7%; despite Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.57 beat, GAAP EPS remains deeply negative (-$6.92 TTM). Accounting treatment of fund closures/one-time items masks underlying profitability questions.
- Performance fee volatility: Despite pivot to fee-based model, performance fees still material; private markets volatility (2027-2030 macro environment, LP distributions, J-curve effects) could compress AUM growth and clip performance fee upside
- Competitive intensity: Asset management consolidation (Apollo, Blackstone, KKR all competing for same LP capital); StepStone smaller than mega-peers; market share gains not guaranteed despite strong recent fundraising
- Valuation risk: P/S of 3.47x vs. peers; analyst P/S fair value estimated at 0.8x-2.3x range suggests 30-75% downside if multiple compresses; current analyst targets ($54-$91) imply wide uncertainty on terminal multiple
Methodology · Stepstone Group Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Stepstone Group Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 10 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (10% cumulative for STEP by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.47B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 12% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.33) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
STEP price target FAQ
What is the STEP price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Stepstone Group Inc 2030 base case is $66.53 per share, with a bull case of $116.70 and bear case of $66.53. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 12% WACC is $39.78.
How is the Stepstone Group Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The STEP 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the STEP price target account for dilution?
Stepstone Group Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 82M to 90M by 2030 (a 10% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 10%.
What is the analyst consensus on STEP stock?
10 analysts cover STEP with an average 12-month price target of $71.75. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.