SQM
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B
NYSE: SQM · BASIC MATERIALS · SPECIALTY CHEMICALS
$91.60
-2.91% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$21.61B
P/E ratio
26.45
P/S ratio
4.08x
EPS (TTM)
$2.86
Dividend yield
1.36%
52W range
$32 – $97
Volume
1.4M
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B (SQM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed SQM price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$91.60
Today
Analyst consensus
$71.42
-22.03% · 12M
2030 Base
$246.19
+168.77% future
NPV today
$157.33
@ 10% WACC
14 analysts:
6 Buy7 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
SQM has not provided explicit forward revenue guidance through 2030. However, management has signaled aggressive lithium expansion (Codelco joint venture finalized in May 2026, Australian projects, Salar de Atacama capacity increases) targeting record lithium production volumes through the decade. CEO commentary indicates lithium as core growth driver with capacity additions expected to drive 25-35% CAGR in lithium volumes 2026-2028, though commodity price realization remains variable.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
SQM · Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$69.04
NPV today: $44.12
Base case (2030)
$246.19
NPV today: $157.33
Bull case (2030)
$423.34
NPV today: $270.54
WallStSmart.com
SQM financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.6B | $6.0B | $7.6B | $9.3B | $11.0B | $12.7B |
| Revenue growth | 0.9% | 29.9% | 27.4% | 23.2% | 18.1% | 14.7% |
| Net margin | — | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% |
| EPS | $2.05 | $3.25 | $4.40 | $5.55 | $6.40 | $7.15 |
| Diluted shares | — | 143M | 143M | 143M | 143M | 143M |
| Net debt | — | $4.42B | $4.11B | $3.74B | $3.30B | $2.79B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $94.06 | $130.42 | $170.02 | $208.51 | $246.19 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.7B | $12.7B | $12.7B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 143M | 143M | 143M |
| Net debt | $2.79B | $2.79B | $2.79B |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 34x | 59x |
| 2030 Price | $69.04 | $246.19 | $423.34 |
| NPV @ 10% | $44.12 | $157.33 | $270.54 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because SQM is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $246.19 base case
SQM catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Codelco lithium joint venture production ramp (50% incremental capacity by 2028-2029)
+ Australian lithium projects (Maricunga expansion, Olaroz debottlenecking) adding 50k+ tonnes LCE capacity by 2027-2028
+ EV battery demand recovery and energy storage CAGR 20-25% through 2030 supporting lithium prices $8k-$12k/tonne
+ Dividend increase to 50% payout ratio on higher cash generation from lithium upside
+ Specialty chemicals (iodine, potassium) margin expansion in industrial cycles
Key risks
- Lithium price crash risk if EV demand softens or oversupply emerges (2026-2027 inventory drawdown dependent on demand recovery)
- Chile regulatory/environmental pressures on water extraction and water tax increases; Atacama brine operations face long-term hydrological constraints
- Capex execution risk on Codelco JV and Australian projects; potential cost overruns could pressure FCF and growth assumptions
- China lithium oversupply from spodumene projects (CATL, state competitors) could depress global lithium carbonate/hydroxide pricing
- FX headwind (USD strength vs. peso) could reduce reported revenue conversion despite volume growth
Methodology · Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B 2030 stock forecast model
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 14 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for SQM by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($2.79B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.028) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
SQM price target FAQ
What is the SQM price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B 2030 base case is $246.19 per share, with a bull case of $423.34 and bear case of $69.04. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $157.33.
How is the Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The SQM 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the SQM price target account for dilution?
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B is projected to grow diluted share count from 143M to 143M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on SQM stock?
14 analysts cover SQM with an average 12-month price target of $71.42. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.