SPG
Simon Property Group Inc
NYSE: SPG · REAL ESTATE · REIT - RETAIL
$201.00
+1.98% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$77.34B
P/E ratio
14.14
P/S ratio
11.63x
EPS (TTM)
$14.39
Dividend yield
4.27%
52W range
$150 – $209
Volume
1.5M
Simon Property Group Inc (SPG) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed SPG price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$201.00
Today
Analyst consensus
$213.30
+6.12% · 12M
2030 Base
$132.13
-34.26% future
NPV today
$78.36
@ 12% WACC
21 analysts:
5 Buy10 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Simon Property Group raised full-year 2026 FFO per share guidance following strong Q1 2026 results (Q1 revenue $1.76B, +19.29% YoY). Management emphasized record real estate FFO, strong occupancy rates, and robust tenant leasing demand. CEO transition (David Simon passed in March 2026) creates near-term uncertainty, but no specific revenue targets for 2026-2030 were disclosed in available guidance; company focused on FFO metrics and dividend growth rather than revenue projections.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
SPG · Simon Property Group Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$59.59
NPV today: $35.34
Base case (2030)
$132.13
NPV today: $78.36
Bull case (2030)
$253.04
NPV today: $150.07
WallStSmart.com
SPG financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.4B | $6.8B | $7.1B | $7.4B | $7.6B | $7.9B |
| Revenue growth | 6.7% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| Net margin | — | 31.3% | 31.2% | 31.7% | 32.1% | 32.2% |
| EPS | $13.76 | $6.60 | $6.84 | $7.20 | $7.52 | $7.78 |
| Diluted shares | — | 325M | 325M | 325M | 325M | 325M |
| Net debt | — | $-678.94M | $-1.39B | $-2.12B | $-2.87B | $-3.65B |
| P/S multiple | — | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $107.60 | $113.90 | $120.04 | $126.05 | $132.13 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.9B | $7.9B | $7.9B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 5.0x | 10.0x |
| Diluted shares | 325M | 325M | 325M |
| Net debt | $-3.65B | $-3.65B | $-3.65B |
| Implied P/E † | 8x | 17x | 33x |
| 2030 Price | $59.59 | $132.13 | $253.04 |
| NPV @ 12% | $35.34 | $78.36 | $150.07 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because SPG is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $132.13 base case
SPG catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Redevelopment projects in Nashville, Denver, Tampa driving premium tenant mix and higher rents
+ Strategic capital allocation: $2.0B share repurchase authorization signals confidence in cash generation
+ Dividend growth trajectory: 7.1% YoY increase to $2.25/share in Q2 2026, supported by rising FFO
+ Robust occupancy and leasing demand from premium retailers seeking premium mall locations
+ Leadership transition stabilization post-David Simon; new management to execute organic growth
Key risks
- CEO succession execution risk: David Simon's passing (March 2026) creates management continuity risk
- Retail sector cyclicality: economic slowdown could reduce tenant demand and weaken rent growth
- E-commerce cannibalization: continued shift to online retail pressures physical mall traffic and tenant economics
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT valuations and refinancing costs exposed to rising rate environment
- High leverage: Debt/Equity ratio of 5.96x limits financial flexibility in distressed scenarios
Methodology · Simon Property Group Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Simon Property Group Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 21 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for SPG by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-3.65B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 12% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.363) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 5.0x / bull 10.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
SPG price target FAQ
What is the SPG price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Simon Property Group Inc 2030 base case is $132.13 per share, with a bull case of $253.04 and bear case of $59.59. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 12% WACC is $78.36.
How is the Simon Property Group Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The SPG 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the SPG price target account for dilution?
Simon Property Group Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 324M to 325M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on SPG stock?
21 analysts cover SPG with an average 12-month price target of $213.30. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.