SNDK
Sandisk Corp
NASDAQ: SNDK · TECHNOLOGY · COMPUTER HARDWARE
$1,980.10
+5.24% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$278.63B
P/E ratio
64.11
P/S ratio
21.13x
EPS (TTM)
$29.35
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$40 – $2,022
Volume
14.9M
Sandisk Corp (SNDK) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed SNDK price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$1,980.10
Today
Analyst consensus
$1,460.00
-26.27% · 12M
2030 Base
$5,632.02
+184.43% future
NPV today
$3,481.17
@ 11% WACC
25 analysts:
20 Buy5 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Sandisk secured $42 billion in multi-year supply agreements with hyperscalers and has guided Q4 FY2026 revenue between $7.75B–$8.25B (midpoint $8.0B). CEO David Goeckeler emphasized the memory market will remain 'undersupplied' through the AI supercycle, with datacenter sales surging 233% YoY in Q3. Management is positioning SNDK as a pure-play NAND leader with high-value, long-term customer commitments that de-risk traditionally volatile memory business.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
SNDK · Sandisk Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$2,777.79
NPV today: $1,716.96
Base case (2030)
$5,632.02
NPV today: $3,481.17
Bull case (2030)
$11,340.47
NPV today: $7,009.58
WallStSmart.com
SNDK financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.4B | $26.5B | $51.8B | $72.1B | $89.6B | $106.2B |
| Revenue growth | 10.4% | 80.1% | 95.5% | 39.2% | 24.2% | 18.5% |
| Net margin | — | 51.5% | 56.7% | 55.2% | 51.8% | 49.8% |
| EPS | $7.42 | $92.00 | $198.00 | $268.00 | $312.00 | $355.00 |
| Diluted shares | — | 148M | 148M | 149M | 149M | 149M |
| Net debt | — | $200.36M | $2.01B | $4.53B | $7.66B | $11.38B |
| P/S multiple | — | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $1,428.78 | $2,779.16 | $3,852.76 | $4,769.44 | $5,632.02 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $106.2B | $106.2B | $106.2B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 8.0x | 16.0x |
| Diluted shares | 149M | 149M | 149M |
| Net debt | $11.38B | $11.38B | $11.38B |
| Implied P/E † | 8x | 16x | 32x |
| 2030 Price | $2,777.79 | $5,632.02 | $11,340.47 |
| NPV @ 11% | $1,716.96 | $3,481.17 | $7,009.58 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because SNDK is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $5,632.02 base case
SNDK catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AI memory supercycle: $42B in contracted multi-year supply commitments from hyperscalers; customer capex (Meta $60B+, MSFT $80B+ AI infrastructure) directly drives NAND demand through 2028
+ Samsung/SK Hynix supply constraints: Korean labor strikes and geopolitical pressures reducing competitor capacity; SNDK positioned as sole pure-play NAND alternative for Western hyperscalers
+ High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF) market: emerging category for AI training/inference; SNDK developing proprietary HBF solutions with early customer adoption; estimated $50B+ TAM by 2028
+ Margin expansion: Q3 FY2026 gross margin 78.35% (vs. historical 35–45%); supply shortage + long-term contracts locking in favorable pricing through 2027–2028
+ Data center consolidation: hyperscalers (NVDA, MSFT, Google, Meta, Amazon) centralizing AI capex; SNDK as critical single-source NAND supplier gains negotiating leverage and recurring revenue visibility
Key risks
- Memory price collapse: if Samsung/Hynix restore capacity or demand moderates, NAND ASP compression would cut revenue/margins 30–50% (commodity cyclical risk)
- Customer concentration: top 5 hyperscaler customers likely represent >70% revenue; loss of one major customer (Meta, MSFT, Google) would trigger -15–25% revenue decline
- Competitive intensity: Intel, Kioxia, Micron all ramping NAND; if supply surplus emerges by 2028, SNDK's premium valuation (P/E 53.5x) becomes indefensible
- Geopolitical: U.S.-China export controls could limit SNDK's addressable market or restrict advanced manufacturing; also exposes SNDK to retaliatory restrictions on Korea/Taiwan chip imports
- Law of large numbers: scaling from $13B (TTM) to $70B+ by 2030 is feasible but requires sustained 40%+ CAGR; any growth miss in 2027–2028 would force downward 2030 revision by $10–20B
- Interest rate sensitivity: current 53.5x P/E implies AI supercycle persists; if Fed tightens or recession emerges, growth repricing could cut stock 30–50% regardless of revenue delivery
Methodology · Sandisk Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Sandisk Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 25 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for SNDK by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($11.38B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 8.0x / bull 16.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
SNDK price target FAQ
What is the SNDK price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Sandisk Corp 2030 base case is $5,632.02 per share, with a bull case of $11,340.47 and bear case of $2,777.79. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $3,481.17.
How is the Sandisk Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The SNDK 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the SNDK price target account for dilution?
Sandisk Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 148M to 149M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on SNDK stock?
25 analysts cover SNDK with an average 12-month price target of $1,460.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.