SKT
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc
NYSE: SKT · REAL ESTATE · REIT - RETAIL
$36.01
+2.01% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$4.65B
P/E ratio
38.17
P/S ratio
7.60x
EPS (TTM)
$1.06
Dividend yield
2.99%
52W range
$28 – $41
Volume
0.8M
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc (SKT) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed SKT price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$36.01
Today
Analyst consensus
$37.43
+3.94% · 12M
2030 Base
$10.86
-69.84% future
NPV today
$6.80
@ 11% WACC
8 analysts:
1 Buy6 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Tanger raised 2026 full-year guidance following strong Q1 2026 results. Management has not disclosed specific 2026-2030 revenue targets, but Q1 2026 showed 11.12% YoY revenue growth to $150.42M and 2.6% Same-Center NOI growth. The company is targeting organic growth through occupancy expansion (achieved 97.0% occupancy in Q1 2026) and strategic tenant mix evolution, particularly attracting Gen Z consumers via premium outlet positioning.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
SKT · Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$4.24
NPV today: $2.65
Base case (2030)
$10.86
NPV today: $6.80
Bull case (2030)
$37.36
NPV today: $23.38
WallStSmart.com
SKT financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.6B | $0.6B | $0.7B | $0.7B | $0.7B | $0.8B |
| Revenue growth | 10.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Net margin | — | 21.8% | 22.8% | 23.6% | 24.1% | 24.6% |
| EPS | $1.03 | $1.18 | $1.32 | $1.44 | $1.54 | $1.63 |
| Diluted shares | — | 115M | 116M | 116M | 116M | 116M |
| Net debt | — | $1.51B | $1.41B | $1.29B | $1.17B | $1.05B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $3.14 | $5.23 | $7.18 | $9.07 | $10.86 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.8B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 116M | 116M | 116M |
| Net debt | $1.05B | $1.05B | $1.05B |
| Implied P/E † | 3x | 7x | 23x |
| 2030 Price | $4.24 | $10.86 | $37.36 |
| NPV @ 11% | $2.65 | $6.80 | $23.38 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because SKT is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $10.86 base case
SKT catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Portfolio renovations (Foley, AL outlet undergoing extensive modernization through fall 2027) driving tenant sales and rent growth
+ Record leasing volume and strong retailer demand creating pricing power and occupancy upside toward 98%+
+ Gen Z consumer attraction through curated premium brand mix expanding addressable market and driving footfall
+ Dividend growth trajectory (6.8% increase to $1.25/share in Apr 2026) signals management confidence in FFO growth
Key risks
- E-commerce structural headwinds and consumer spending softness reducing outlet visitation and retail tenant sales
- Tenant bankruptcies or lease non-renewals (retail consolidation) pressuring occupancy and rental rate growth
- Rising interest rates and financing costs increasing cost of capital and reducing property value multiples
- Macroeconomic recession reducing Gen Z discretionary spending on apparel and limiting tenant demand for space
Methodology · Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 8 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for SKT by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($1.05B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.124) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
SKT price target FAQ
What is the SKT price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc 2030 base case is $10.86 per share, with a bull case of $37.36 and bear case of $4.24. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $6.80.
How is the Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The SKT 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the SKT price target account for dilution?
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 115M to 116M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on SKT stock?
8 analysts cover SKT with an average 12-month price target of $37.43. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.