SIMO
Silicon Motion Technology
NASDAQ: SIMO · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$262.05
-12.21% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$9.51B
P/E ratio
55.54
P/S ratio
8.96x
EPS (TTM)
$5.05
Dividend yield
0.71%
52W range
$67 – $314
Volume
1.0M
Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed SIMO price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$262.05
Today
Analyst consensus
$205.63
-21.53% · 12M
2030 Base
$485.46
+85.25% future
NPV today
$268.59
@ 14% WACC
12 analysts:
10 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Wallace Kou has not publicly disclosed specific multi-year revenue targets through 2030. However, Q1 2026 guidance of $393-411M (sequential +15-20%) and commentary on 'strong demand from AI, enterprise, and hyperscaler data center customers' with new product launches (MonTitan SM8366, PCIe Gen5 controllers) through 2026-2027 suggest management expects sustained double-digit sequential growth in near term. Company is guiding to continued operating margin expansion as AI/datacenter mix improves.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
SIMO · Silicon Motion Technology · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$250.82
NPV today: $138.77
Base case (2030)
$485.46
NPV today: $268.59
Bull case (2030)
$954.74
NPV today: $528.24
WallStSmart.com
SIMO financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.9B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.8B | $3.5B | $4.0B |
| Revenue growth | 10.2% | 89.1% | 28.0% | 30.8% | 23.3% | 16.1% |
| Net margin | — | 18.1% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| EPS | $3.55 | $8.92 | $11.86 | $15.43 | $19.05 | $22.34 |
| Diluted shares | — | 34M | 34M | 34M | 34M | 34M |
| Net debt | — | $-243.70M | $-297.30M | $-367.39M | $-453.85M | $-554.25M |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $204.37 | $260.76 | $339.69 | $418.19 | $485.46 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0B | $4.0B | $4.0B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 8.0x |
| Diluted shares | 34M | 34M | 34M |
| Net debt | $-554.25M | $-554.25M | $-554.25M |
| Implied P/E † | 11x | 22x | 43x |
| 2030 Price | $250.82 | $485.46 | $954.74 |
| NPV @ 14% | $138.77 | $268.59 | $528.24 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because SIMO is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $485.46 base case
SIMO catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ MonTitan SM8366 enterprise SSD platform ramp (2026-2027) — higher-margin datacentre/AI storage
+ PCIe Gen5 NVMe boot drive adoption across hyperscalers (Google, Meta, Microsoft capex cycles)
+ ISO 26262 automotive certification enabling automotive storage segment entry (2026+)
+ Hyperscaler AI capex acceleration: Meta $60B, Microsoft $80B, Google $100B+ through 2027-2028
+ Shift to higher-margin datacenter/enterprise products (boot drives, enterprise SSDs) vs. lower-margin embedded eMMC/UFS
+ Taipei HQ expansion completion (2030) signaling sustained R&D investment and regional growth
Key risks
- Intense competition from Marvell, Broadcom, SK Hynix, Samsung in SSD controller market — pricing pressure could compress margins
- Hyperscaler capex moderation post-2027 if AI ROI disappoints or market saturates
- China geopolitical risk: ~45% of revenue exposure; potential export controls or supply chain disruption
- Cyclical NAND market downturn could reduce design wins and customer inventory reorders
- High valuation (P/E ~51-58x, P/S 8.16x) leaves limited margin of safety; sentiment reversal would be sharp
- Concentration risk: top 5 customers likely represent 60%+ of revenue — loss of one hyperscaler is material
Methodology · Silicon Motion Technology 2030 stock forecast model
Silicon Motion Technology 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for SIMO by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-554.25M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.668) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 8.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
SIMO price target FAQ
What is the SIMO price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Silicon Motion Technology 2030 base case is $485.46 per share, with a bull case of $954.74 and bear case of $250.82. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $268.59.
How is the Silicon Motion Technology 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The SIMO 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the SIMO price target account for dilution?
Silicon Motion Technology is projected to grow diluted share count from 34M to 34M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on SIMO stock?
12 analysts cover SIMO with an average 12-month price target of $205.63. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.