WallStSmart
RIO

Rio Tinto ADR

NYSE: RIO · BASIC MATERIALS · OTHER INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINING

$100.48
+4.14% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$161.98B
P/E ratio
16.36
P/S ratio
2.81x
EPS (TTM)
$6.09
Dividend yield
4.07%
52W range
$53 – $101
Volume
3.0M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Rio Tinto ADR (RIO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$100.48
Consensus
$81.00
-19.39%
2030 Target
$557.26
+454.60%
DCF
$114.19
+14.08% MoS
5 analysts:
2 Buy3 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

Rio Tinto has provided 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment guidance of 323-338 million tonnes, maintaining this guidance despite recent cyclone disruptions. Management is advancing major growth projects including Oyu Tolgoi copper mine expansion, Resolution Copper (mid-2030s opening), Johnson Camp (Nuton technology), and the Arcadium Lithium acquisition, positioning the company for sustained production growth in copper and lithium through 2030. Specific revenue targets for 2026-2030 have not been publicly disclosed by management.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$925.61
$75.6B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$557.26
$75.6B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$368.36
$75.6B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$54.0B$53.7B$57.8B$62.5B$64.2B$67.4B$71.2B$75.6B
Revenue growth—-0.7%7.7%8.4%2.8%4.9%5.6%6.2%
EPS$6.91$3.51$6.47$8.28$8.35$8.92$9.68$10.45
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$462.81$472.25$500.59$528.92$557.26

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Oyu Tolgoi copper mine ramp-up and production growth driving higher copper revenues (2026-2028)
+ Resolution Copper project approval and development (targeting mid-2030s production start)
+ Arcadium Lithium integration and lithium production scaling for EV/energy transition demand
+ Strong demand for iron ore from China infrastructure and steel production despite near-term inventory headwinds
+ Johnson Camp mine deployment using Nuton cleaner copper technology improving margins
+ Record Australian supplier spend ($19.7B in 2025) signals capital investment into operational expansion
Key risks
- China economic slowdown reducing demand for iron ore and base metals; record iron ore stockpiles signal near-term oversupply
- Geopolitical tensions (Iran conflict) creating commodity price volatility and supply chain disruptions
- Tropical cyclones impacting Pilbara operations; 8M tonnes of iron ore shipments lost to recent weather events
- Copper and lithium prices vulnerable to macroeconomic weakness; analyst downgrades increasing (5 downgrades since Jun 2025)
- Diavik diamond mine closure eliminating that revenue stream; diamonds not material to total revenue but signals portfolio transition risk
- Short interest increased 64.71% to 1.12% of float, suggesting rising bearish sentiment among sophisticated investors

Methodology

Rio Tinto ADR's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 5 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.