RDW
Redwire Corp
NYSE: RDW · INDUSTRIALS · AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
$15.12
-11.53% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$3.81B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
10.28x
EPS (TTM)
$-2.59
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$5 – $27
Volume
37.7M
Redwire Corp (RDW) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed RDW price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$15.12
Today
Analyst consensus
$14.44
-4.50% · 12M
2030 Base
$82.83
+447.82% future
NPV today
$38.92
@ 18% WACC
12 analysts:
8 Buy2 Hold3 Sell
Management guidance
Redwire reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $450M-$500M (midpoint $475M), representing 41.7% YoY growth from $335.4M in 2025. Management cited record $498.1M contracted backlog with 1.92x book-to-bill ratio, indicating strong multi-year revenue visibility. CEO emphasized 'very strong demand' across space infrastructure and defense programs, with Andromeda IDIQ ceiling flagged to rise above $6B.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
RDW · Redwire Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$52.48
NPV today: $24.66
Base case (2030)
$82.83
NPV today: $38.92
Bull case (2030)
$113.17
NPV today: $53.18
WallStSmart.com
RDW financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.3B | $0.5B | $0.8B | $1.1B | $1.6B | $2.1B |
| Revenue growth | 10.3% | 41.7% | 36.8% | 30.0% | 24.3% | 21.9% |
| Net margin | — | -27.5% | -9.5% | -0.9% | 3.3% | 5.4% |
| EPS | $-1.91 | $-0.65 | $-0.35 | $-0.05 | $0.25 | $0.55 |
| Diluted shares | — | 201M | 203M | 205M | 206M | 208M |
| Net debt | — | $392.57M | $571.29M | $833.40M | $1.20B | $1.70B |
| P/S multiple | — | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 9.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $19.32 | $30.48 | $44.33 | $61.83 | $82.83 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.1B | $2.1B | $2.1B |
| P/S multiple | 6.0x | 9.0x | 12.0x |
| Diluted shares | 208M | 208M | 208M |
| Net debt | $1.70B | $1.70B | $1.70B |
| Implied P/E † | 95x | 151x | 206x |
| 2030 Price | $52.48 | $82.83 | $113.17 |
| NPV @ 18% | $24.66 | $38.92 | $53.18 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because RDW is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $82.83 base case
RDW catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Record $498.1M backlog conversion with 1.92x book-to-bill ratio driving 2026-2027 revenue visibility
+ Defense-focused growth: $44M DARPA Space-BACN contract, multi-year NATO Penguin Mk3 contract (high 8-figures), $20M+ follow-on Army orders for Stalker UAS
+ Andromeda IDIQ program ceiling expansion to $6B+ (from previous $1.8B baseline) unlocks massive TAM for space infrastructure
+ Edge Autonomy integration driving autonomous UAS capabilities across Penguin and Stalker product lines for military modernization
+ Artemis II mission contribution and expanded ESA Quantum-Secure Satellite (QKDSat) program validating space infrastructure leadership
Key risks
- Persistent unprofitability: $78M net loss in Q1 2026 despite $97M revenue; no path to profitability in analyst models through 2029
- Severe shareholder dilution: $530M+ equity offerings YTD (including $350M at-the-market program) at $14-15 share prices; dilution will compress EPS even if revenue targets achieved
- Backlog conversion risk: $498M backlog does not guarantee $498M revenue in single year; multi-year contract phasing could delay cash realization; book-to-bill of 1.92x suggests ~2-year payoff horizon
- Defense/space budget exposure: 80%+ revenue exposed to U.S. Government and NATO defense spending; geopolitical shift or Congressional budget cuts could delay awards or stretch contract execution
- Integration execution: Edge Autonomy acquisition integration and margin expansion remain unproven; Q1 2026 showed wider losses despite strong top-line growth
Methodology · Redwire Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Redwire Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (4% cumulative for RDW by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($1.70B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 18% WACC (CAPM: beta 2.422) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 6.0x / base 9.0x / bull 12.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
RDW price target FAQ
What is the RDW price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Redwire Corp 2030 base case is $82.83 per share, with a bull case of $113.17 and bear case of $52.48. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 18% WACC is $38.92.
How is the Redwire Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The RDW 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the RDW price target account for dilution?
Redwire Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 199M to 208M by 2030 (a 4% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 4%.
What is the analyst consensus on RDW stock?
12 analysts cover RDW with an average 12-month price target of $14.44. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.