RBRK
Rubrik, Inc.
NYSE: RBRK · TECHNOLOGY · SOFTWARE - INFRASTRUCTURE
$68.19
-4.56% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$16.94B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
12.87x
EPS (TTM)
$-1.78
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$42 – $103
Volume
3.7M
Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed RBRK price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$68.19
Today
Analyst consensus
$84.84
+24.42% · 12M
2030 Base
$102.83
+50.80% future
NPV today
$72.12
@ 8% WACC
29 analysts:
27 Buy0 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Rubrik has not provided explicit multi-year revenue guidance through 2030. However, CEO Bipul Sinha has emphasized aggressive expansion in cyber resilience and AI governance. Management guided FY2027 revenue to $1.64B (24.5% growth) and FY2028 to $2.01B (22.4% growth) per consensus. The company is targeting dominant market share in the $30B+ cyber resilience and data protection TAM, with specific focus on hyperscaler and enterprise adoption.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
RBRK · Rubrik, Inc. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$42.48
NPV today: $29.79
Base case (2030)
$102.83
NPV today: $72.12
Bull case (2030)
$203.43
NPV today: $142.67
WallStSmart.com
RBRK financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $2.0B | $2.5B | $3.0B | $3.6B |
| Revenue growth | 48.5% | 22.5% | 24.8% | 20.3% | 19.5% |
| Net margin | — | 4.9% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 13.2% |
| EPS | $0.16 | $0.58 | $1.15 | $1.85 | $2.65 |
| Diluted shares | — | 169M | 173M | 176M | 179M |
| Net debt | — | $-452.91M | $-438.84M | $-421.90M | $-401.66M |
| P/S multiple | — | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $62.12 | $75.16 | $88.06 | $102.83 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.6B | $3.6B | $3.6B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 5.0x | 10.0x |
| Diluted shares | 179M | 179M | 179M |
| Net debt | $-401.66M | $-401.66M | $-401.66M |
| Implied P/E † | 16x | 39x | 77x |
| 2030 Price | $42.48 | $102.83 | $203.43 |
| NPV @ 8% | $29.79 | $72.12 | $142.67 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because RBRK is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $102.83 base case
RBRK catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Semantic AI Governance Engine (SAGE) adoption acceleration driving premium pricing and new TAM expansion in AI agent security
+ Microsoft Defender integration deepening enterprise platform consolidation and cross-sell momentum
+ Hyperscaler capex spending ($250B+ AI infrastructure 2025-2027) driving data protection and cyber resilience spending
+ Subscription ARR growth accelerating (target $750M+ ARR by 2028) enabling predictable recurring revenue base
+ MEDITECH healthcare partnership and vertical-specific solutions unlocking new customer segments
Key risks
- Intense competition from legacy players (Veeam, CommVault, Cohesity) and cloud-native entrants (Amazon, Microsoft, Google)
- Profitability timeline uncertain — currently -26.5% profit margin; must achieve significant gross margin expansion and OpEx leverage to reach 15%+ net margins by 2029
- TAM compression risk if hyperscaler-provided native backup solutions reduce willingness to pay for third-party cyber resilience platforms
- High insider selling pressure observed Q1 2026 (CFO, CTO, directors selling; aggregate $7M+ in 3 months)
- IPO lockup expirations and secondary offering risk could pressure stock price and reduce funding flexibility
Methodology · Rubrik, Inc. 2030 stock forecast model
Rubrik, Inc. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 29 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (11% cumulative for RBRK by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-401.66M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.628) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 5.0x / bull 10.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
RBRK price target FAQ
What is the RBRK price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Rubrik, Inc. 2030 base case is $102.83 per share, with a bull case of $203.43 and bear case of $42.48. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $72.12.
How is the Rubrik, Inc. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The RBRK 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the RBRK price target account for dilution?
Rubrik, Inc. is projected to grow diluted share count from 161M to 179M by 2030 (a 11% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 11%.
What is the analyst consensus on RBRK stock?
29 analysts cover RBRK with an average 12-month price target of $84.84. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.